COMMENTARY
Saritdet Marukatat
Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat and Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda make for a strange combination. The relationship between them is probably the weirdest thing so far in Thai politics.
Married to Thaksin Shinawatra's younger sister Yaowapa, PM Somchai obviously is a product under the Shinawatra brand. He was awarded the premiership post by chance, after Samak Sundaravej had to stand down and the ruling People Power party had to quickly find somebody to fill the position.
Given his resume, the army commander is in the opposite camp. He joined the other top brass two years ago to end Thaksin's administration on Sept 19, 2006. In fact he was a key figure at the time to topple the then prime minister. The military coup was the start of a long journey for Thaksin, who has been hopping around from one place to another since then.
Gen Anupong's survival when Mr Samak was the government leader was understandable. As an outsider in the PPP backed only by Thaksin, Mr Samak had to cultivate his ties with the army to counter Thaksin's power in local politics. He used his relations with the army as his bargaining chip. Mr Samak survived pressure in the PPP and from those loyal to Thaksin, but he could not survive the Constitution Court's verdict.
Now Mr Samak has gone from the political scene. After his departure, many expected Gen Anupong to go, too. It would be better for the new prime minister to have an army leader whom he could trust and rely on. But Mr Somchai, who also serves as defence minister, decided to keep things as they were.
The question now is how long their relationship will last, following two events which embarrassed Mr Somchai.
First, the C-in-C hinted that the prime minister should have resigned - after the Oct 7 violent police crackdown on protesters who tried to prevent the government from making a policy announcement in Parliament. The army chief did not suggest this in private; he used TV Channel 3 to send the message to Mr Somchai, with other key top brass sitting beside him as witnesses.
But Mr Somchai did not care about that call. And he also decided not to punish Gen Anupong for that remark. Everything appeared normal, as though nothing had happened.
Then came another demand from Gen Anupong. The army leader, using top civil servants and some leading academics as back-up, this time "suggested" that the prime minister should dissolve the House so that the People's Alliance for Democracy could end its blockade of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports and thereby end the political crisis.
At first, the decision by Gen Anupong to call an urgent meeting with those people raised hopes that the deadlock could come to an end - after all, the economic and political damage has been astronomical. But both the prime minister and the PAD simply shrugged off the suggestion. After the rejection by the prime minister, attention turned to the army leader - whether he should pay the price for having openly suggested that the PM dissolve the House.
As it turns out, Gen Anupong is still alive and kicking in this political game. The one who has had to go, instead, is police chief Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan. He was sacked because of his reluctance to order police forces to crack down on the demonstrators.
The decision to keep Gen Anupong and let Pol Gen Patcharawat go is not due to the fact that the army chief is still in Mr Somchai's good books. PM Somchai knows too well that he cannot control Gen Anupong. But the prime minister cannot be easily tamed by Gen Anupong, either.
The army leader could order tanks to roll out of military barracks and topple the government but a coup would not be easy this time around. Gen Anupong will have to face the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, if he fails to take action against the PAD for damaging the country by closing the airports - even after an unlikely coup.But time will force both to make a decision as to who will break this fragile relationship first, Mr Somchai or Gen Anupong?
Saritdet Marukatat is News Editor, Bangkok Post.
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