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ENVIRONMENT
VICHAYA PITSUWAN
Thailand should move to profit from carbon-credit trading between now and the end of next year, before international negotiations on emissions intensify, said Dr Sirintornthep Towprayoon, deputy director of the Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE). ''Starting from next year we will see additional uncertainties that may be imposed further to the Kyoto protocol,'' Dr Sirintornthep said.
She said these uncertainties could affect supply and demand, and therefore prices, in the carbon-credit trading market.
The uncertainties include the possible extension of a five-year Green House Gas (GHG) reduction commitment established by the Kyoto protocol to be in effect from 2008 to 2012.
A higher cut in emissions may also be imposed in a post-Kyoto protocol. Discussions in the Bali round of post-Kyoto protocol talks, which took Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data into consideration, have raised the possibility of countries having to reduce greenhouse gases emission by 40% rather than 20%.
Under the Kyoto protocol, developed countries in Annex 1 must reduce their emissions to 5-6% below the levels they emitted in 1990 within the five-year period from 2008-12. But the reduction rate from the base year of 1990 was under discussion for the post-Kyoto protocol, Dr Sirintornthep said.
''If the new reduction rate becomes mandatory, the committed countries will have to work harder in reducing GHG emission,'' said Dr Sirintornthep.
She said it may oblige these countries to invest further in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects or to buy more carbon credits, resulting in more opportunities for Thailand.
However, she added that this did not guarantee a strong demand for carbon credits.
''By the time these uncertainties are cleared up, there may be a plentiful supply of carbon credits in the market, and then trading prices are likely to decline,'' she said.
In Thailand, she said more CDM investments have been financed by the private sector than by developed nations' government bodies. This means that most CDM projects here are aimed at capturing carbon credits for trading.
''Most projects in Thailand are focused on biogas and biomass power because of our large farm-waste capacity,'' she said.
However, she suggested that CDM projects enhancing social well-being, like landfill waste management projects, should be promoted. She said projects that should be passed easily by the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organisation (TGO) would offer sustainable development involving environmental improvement, economic returns and corporate social responsibility.
She added that CDM investment can benefit Thailand through clean technology transfer, environment improvement, more employment and more money coming into the country through investment in the project itself and through income from selling carbon credits.
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