Time to have a look at the betting odds as the season gets into full swing
Back in the Land of Smiles this week to participate in the Coral Beach 'Magic Tour' Golf Classic in Pattaya. Good times are always guaranteed both on the course under the able guidance of co-ordinator Mike Hudson and hanging out in my favourite nightspots _ Tim's Bar, Champions, Spicy Girls and Lolita's.
TrueVisions
Checking the schedule on the Net, only two NFL games are listed for late tonight. The Bucs v Saints at midnight and Dallas v Cleveland at 3:15am. Nothing on tap yet for the next two mornings.
However, got an email from one of my readers who says that DSTV from SA will broadcast on Monday Night Countdown and the Viking v Packer game starting at 4am, Tuesday. Thanks Michael!
It really doesn't matter much to me, as I subscribe to Field Pass and enjoy listening to the radio broadcasts while my computer is set to GameCenter. It's almost like being there!
Prelude
Each Sunday I try and select a series of games where I believe there is a slight edge to the punter based on the handicap point spread system and/or the Over-Under line. I'll also at times, take a stab at a MoneyLine Parlay. My average over the past six years is 54.8% which is fairly respectable, considering it gets more difficult each season, what with the salary cap, trades, free agency and the upside down college draft system.
Unlike the British Premiership, where the same four teams are always at the top of the table, at least two-thirds of the teams in the NFL have a decent shot at reaching the Super Bowl. Now that is parity!
How it works
Since in most cases, no two opponents are equal, the bookmakers in Las Vegas assign a certain number of points to the weaker team, hereby classified as the Underdog and indicated by a (+) sign in my column. There are two chances to win betting the Dog. They can either win the game outright or lose by LESS than the allotted point spread. The favourite carries the identical number and will have a (-) sign attached but they must WIN the game by MORE than the allotted point spread. Took the Giants (-4) on Thursday and they won by 9. Winner!
Sometimes, there is a half point (.5) added to the spread, so there will always be a winner/loser and if by chance, the favourite wins by the EXACT number of points, the game is declared a PUSH or No Bet.
The OVER/UNDER play is easy. The oddsmakers set a mythical number, usually in the 37-45 range and the trick is to estimate what the total score of the two teams will be. However, outcomes can be influenced by turnovers, mistakes, injuries and of course, the weather. Took the UNDER 40 in that first game and the final was 16-7 or a total of 23 points.
Another Bingo! Great way to get out of the starting gate this year!
The MoneyLine is also cut and dry. The team you bet HAS TO WIN. The catch is _ odds on the favourite are usually quite low. I always try and find a couple of high priced Dogs and tie them together in a three or four team parlay. The odds are long, the bet minimal and it's a big bonanza if they all hit but it doesn't happen often. I call this my Puppy Dog Parlay.
Since I stay at the Wynn Casino in Vegas and have fond memories of that magnificent hotel _ will use their betting lines as parameters for my picks this season.
Up for grabs
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Baltimore (UNDER 38)
Both teams have their share of problems at the pivot slot. Bengals QB Carson Palmer had his nose shattered a few weeks ago and the Ravens will start rookie, QB Joe Flacco, which is normally a recipe for disaster. In the end, it all boils down to experience so taking Cincy (-1.5) and the (UNDER 38) total points in a game of big-time mistakes.
Heavy hearts
Jacksonville at Tennessee (UNDER 37)
What effect the random shooting of reserve OT Richard Collier will have on the Jaguars team psyche has yet to be determined and the Titans have troubles of their own with a struggling offense. This all adds up to a battle in the trenches, so taking (UNDER 37) to the bank.
Lion's roar
Detroit (-3) at Atlanta (OVER 40.5)
For some reason, I think the Lions will bust out this season and there's no better place to begin than inside the Georgia Dome against an Atlanta squad that is rebuilding and also send another rookie QB Matt Ryan to the wolves. Hanging tough with Detroit (-3) and scoring should be high (OVER 40.5) under the roof on Astroturf.
Beating the drums
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)
It looks as if the worst of hurricane Gustav has passed, yet the storm still forced the Saints to practice the entire week 1200 kilometres away from familiar surroundings. Luckily, the Superdome survived intact so the Saints (-3) with home field advantage should go marching in.
Turning the tables
Dallas (OVER 48) at Cleveland (+5) This game could turn into a shoot-out (OVER 48) as both teams have an explosive offense but are suspect in spots on the other side of the ball. The Brownies (+5) are banged up and were winless in the pre-season, which is the main reason I like themand that makes no sense at all.
The dart board
In other games, love the (UNDER 44) in the Bears/Colts contest, like the 49ers getting (+3) at home against the Cards, the (UNDER 44) with the Rams in Philly could be solid and figure the Panthers (+9.5) can hold their own in San Diego.
YTD: Correct: 2 Incorrect: 0 Pushes: 0
Coach Dick Thornton is currently working on a full time Coca-Cola Bottler project in the Philippines. Contact him at
coachdt
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