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TRADE
Thailand benefits from new markets
PHUSADEE ARUNMAS
Thailand's exports are expected to grow at a slower pace in the second half of this year mainly because of a global economic slowdown and higher costs influenced by rising oil prices, inflation and interest rates.
Aat Pisanwanich, the director of the Centre for International Trade Studies, said yesterday that the dollar value of the country's exports in the second half was projected to increase 13.2% year-on-year to US$92.28 billion.
In the first half, the figure grew 21.1% to $85.97 billion.
However, according to Mr Aat, exports for the whole year were projected to grow 16.9% to $178.25 billion. The rate is down slightly from 17.5% growth in 2007.
The centre forecasts overall economic growth this year at 5-5.5% and an average crude oil price at $122.30 per barrel.
This year's strong export growth was attributed mainly to Thailand's achievement in reducing dependence on traditional markets and expanding emerging markets such as China, India, Indochina, the Middle East and Africa.
Higher export prices and a weaker baht since April played a key part in driving export growth prospects.
The centre projected imports would be worth $94.64 billion in the second half of the year, and growth would slow to 28% against 32.4% in the first half to $87.52 billion.
The slowdown would be due to sluggish domestic consumption and delays in new investment projects in light of higher inflation and interest rates.
Imports for the full year are forecast at $182.16 billion, an increase of 30.1%.
The centre forecast a trade deficit of $2.35 billion in the second half, against a first-half deficit of $1.55 billion. For 2008, the trade deficit was expected to amount to $3.9 billion against a trade surplus of $12.46 billion in 2007.
According to Mr Aat, the country is expected to experience more inflationary pressure in the second half, with the rate estimated to reach 13.1% in the second half against 6.3% in the first half. The centre forecast the full-year annual inflation rate of 9.7%.
''In the worst case, inflation is likely to reach 12% this year if the average crude oil price rises to $131.20 per barrel. Export performance would also be affected accordingly, with the growth rate probably dropping to 13.5% this year to $173 billion.''
According to Mr Aat, apart from oil prices, political factors posed a key threat to Thailand's economic growth, as the government would be less able to pursue economic stimulus measures.
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