LET IT BE
SURANAND VEJJAJIVA
It has been a series of unfortunate events for the ruling People's Power party (PPP) with the courts handing out verdicts like students handing out leaflets at your local BTS station.
First was a small fine slapped on the Minister of Public Health, Chaiya Sasomsap, for contempt of the Administrative Court. Shortly afterwards, he was ousted by the Constitution Court as his wife held more than 5% in a company which he forgot to report.
Tuesday was more depressing for the PPP. The Constitution Court ruled that the government had violated the Constitution by endorsing the joint communique with Cambodia on the temple of Preah Vihear. Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama's head was set to roll.
Later in the day, ex-House Speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat was banned from politics for five years, in an election fraud case. The verdict could eventually lead to the dissolution of the PPP since Mr Yongyuth was on the party executive board.
More will come, ranging from cases against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, to corruption charges against former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Past and upcoming verdicts are creating waves of instability within the government and the ruling party. The PPP's political options include PM Samak resigning (next to impossible), a House dissolution (possible) and a cabinet reshuffle (a certainty).
These events have led to euphoria among the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which has been demonstrating in the streets for more than 40 days now. The opposition Democrats smell blood and are on the move again, after a disappointing no-confidence debate.
There is talk of an alternative political scenario, with the Democrats becoming a minority government, or a "tight margin" majority, requiring the present government's coalition partners to switch sides.
This, however, is unlikely. There is no rationale for coalition partners to switch. For them, the new government would be less stable. Except for Chart Thai, the other parties are offspring of the defunct Thai Rak Thai, PPP's predecessor.
The Democrats also have a reputation of being hard to work with. Moreover, to join a Democrat-led coalition would not be well received in the rural areas, especially in the Northeast, the political base of most parties, where the PPP is still widely popular and the Democrats are seen as little better than the devil.
Since no sane, elected member of parliament - in government or the opposition - wants an election only six months after a hard-fought one, a House dissolution would be the last option.
Besides, an election would not resolve the enduring conflict.
The PPP, or any other party under a similar banner created to circumvent a court dissolution verdict, would remain a formidable force. As the rural favourite and being well financed, the PPP is expected to retain its majority (under any other name).
Caught in the deadlock, Thai democracy is now at risk, as the current circumstances provide an opening for undemocratic forces to creep in. Some have appealed to the military to intervene. The PAD sent out signals that basically proposed a doctrine for military dominance. A four-star army general in uniform spoke on the PAD stage. This is dangerous indeed, since undemocratic interference would hurt the Kingdom even more, sending the already slowed down economy into a tailspin.
The PPP alone has the power to avoid this, but it must reposition itself. With its strong rural base, it must now work to win back the trust and confidence of the urban middle class.
In the good old days, Thai Rak Thai did have a strong support base in Bangkok and PM Samak was elected governor with more than a million votes, the only one to do so.
The PPP must work hard to erase questions in the minds of doubters. First, with a basic attitude adjustment, the PPP must stop seeing itself as a rural-based party, but instead as a mainstream one ready to listen and take others on board.
As the silent majority is bored with the political in-fighting, PM Samak should stop antagonising the public with his words. Confrontational tactics such as the re-opening of PTV are unnecessary. The middle ground is meant to be nurtured, not alienated.
But to really win back the trust and confidence of voters, the PPP must get back to basics, solving the "stomach" issue. The government must aggressively coordinate economic measures to relieve the present economic hardship.
Concrete actions lead to legitimacy. Form a new economic team, one that does not rely on the party quota system. Get rid of incompetent ministers. Show the public that the right person is in the right job. Voters expect capable people working for them.
Inviting respectable outsiders will also help the PPP's status. As the party is in need of new leadership, this will open up opportunities for the next leader to emerge after PM Samak.
Finally and of utmost importance, the PPP must not interfere with the judicial system. Let the river run its course.
The PPP's survival is at stake and its decisions will make or break the future of Thai democracy.
Suranand Vejjajiva served in the Thaksin Shinawatra cabinet and is now a political analyst.
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