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Business >> Saturday July 12, 2008
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Four key Asian property markets at a glance

India Since India eased its rules on inward investment in the construction industry in early 2005, foreign investors have earmarked an estimated US$20 billion for property, quadrupling in land prices in many areas.

But government figures show only about $2 billion actually spent in the last three years.

Funds have complained that Indian developers slapped inflated price tags on themselves, their land, and projects.

However, developers are starting to offer appealing deals as banks tighten lending and a stock market slump shuts off public share offerings, which should benefit funds run by the likes of Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch

Indian banks are banned from lending for land purchases and the central bank has raised the cash reserve ratio several times this year, which could crimp other loans and raise lending rates from the 12-13% charged now.

The failure of the Dubai-backed developer Emaar MGF Land to push through a $1.6 billion initial public offering in January was a defining moment for developers.

Pune-based developer Vascon Engineers Ltd has since postponed its IPO and Unitech Ltd has shelved a planned $1.5-billion private placement, according to property analysts.

Many developers believe the coming year is the ideal time to invest Indian property because land prices should fall. After a cooling-off period, long-term demand will be huge for new apartments, shopping centres and offices in an economy growing at around 8% a year.

China China's steps to cool a frenzied residential market are finally biting and look likely to usher in an industry shake-out that could force thousands of small-time developers out of business, leaving large listed operators sitting pretty.

With average home prices doubling since 2002 and high-end apartment prices rising more, the government has tried to cool markets with curbs on supply and demand.

It has raised interest rates regularly, imposed taxes on capital gains and land appreciation, stopped non-residents buying apartments, told banks to curb loans to developers and employed a ''use it or lose it'' policy to deter land speculation.

Signs have emerged that the government's measures are slowing property price rises. Average urban prices rose 9.2% in May from a year earlier, compared to 10.1% in April, according to official data.

Home sales in Shenzhen ground to a near halt at the end of 2007, and prices in the city were up just 2.5% in May from a year earlier.

As many as 30 developers are eager to push through initial public offerings in Hong Kong to raise funds needed to complete projects and land deals, but they have been frustrated by a stock market slump.

After some popular IPOs in the last couple of years, the only Chinese developer to list in Hong Kong this year was Central China Real Estate Ltd, which has seen its share price fall by more than 20% since a debut in early June.

Hong Kong The global credit crunch has raised doubts about the ambitious expansion plans hatched by financial firms in Hong Kong, leading to forecasts that the city's property market will soon cool.

Monthly office rents in Central, the main business district, have doubled over the last two years to around HK$115 per square foot _ equivalent to 5,300 baht per square metre, about 10 times the Bangkok average _ and are up 13% so far this year, according to the global property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.

Prime rents are likely to rise 15-20% in the next year, according to DBS analysts, with other decentralised locations seeing 5-10% rises.

Interest rate cuts _ forced by Hong Kong's peg with the US dollar _ sparked an apartment buying spree at the end of 2007 but transactions have softened in the last two months. However, property sales were still up 32% by value and 23% by volume in the first quarter of this year from the same period of 2007.

Singapore Private home prices in Singapore surged 31% in 2007 for the largest increase in over eight years, led by strong buying by foreigners in the luxury segment, prompting the government to step in with cooling measures in late 2007.

Government measures, coupled with fears of a global downturn, scared off buyers and caused home sales for the first three months of 2008 to dip to the lowest level since the Sars epidemic in 2003, while price growth slowed to 3.7%.

Some analysts are now expecting residential prices to fall by 30% to 40% over the next three years, as a glut of new projects hit the market and smaller developers run into financing troubles and unload properties at massive discounts.

Government data showed that growth in the value of Singapore's office buildings also moderated, rising 1.1% in the first quarter compared with 8% in the final quarter of 2007, as fewer transactions by major funds took place.

But occupancy rates continued to hold up, hitting more than 99% for prime offices, as liberal tax policies draw more financial firms to the city-state. The low vacancy caused a spike in rentals, and Singapore emerged in May as the ninth most expensive office market in a CBRE survey on global market rents, lifting prime yields higher to 5.19% in the first quarter of 2008. REUTERS

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