InMedia
It is likely Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej will dissolve the House of Representatives after the budget bill is approved by parliament.
With a lot of money and manpower at its disposal, the ruling People Power party (PPP) is in a good position to win a Lower House election. But the party's stability also depends on the fate of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, believed to be the real power behind the PPP. He is fighting a number of corruption cases in court.
The Samak government itself is facing a grave crisis, after two of its cabinet ministers were forced from office and the entire cabinet is facing impeachment proceedings.
Three other cabinet ministers _ Surapong Suebwonglee, Uraiwan Thienthong and Anurak Jureemart _ will have to step down if the Supreme Court convicts them of misconduct in the digit-lottery scheme. The ruling is expected on July 28.
Dissolving the House and calling a snap general election is a good way out for the Samak government. All of its current lawmakers are expected to be re-elected, and some analysts believe the PPP have even more seats in the next parliament.
But all these rosy predictions will be meaningless if Mr Thaksin is found guilty of corruption and forced into the political wilderness before Samak dissolves the House. Without Thaksin, the PPP is likely to be in disarray. This will allow the Democrats to make a political comeback.
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