COMMENTARY
ATIYA ACHAKULWISUT
Because its name is the sum of all things foul, fetid and disgusting, it was only natural that the monitor lizards, Tua Hia in Thai, were the first to portend the signs. Usually shy, the monitor lizards were spotted mating in public in broad daylight by the moat near the parliament building not too long ago. This highly unusual display of intimacy was captured and splashed across newspapers the following day.
Soon after that a Ratchapreuk tree, considered a national symbol, reaffirmed the threatening trend. After the Constitution Court read out its verdict that the Thai-Cambodian joint communique was unconstitutional, the tree toppled over in the parliament grounds.
Bad omens... people who believe in signs from nature, divine intervention or the "invisible hand" theory (whatever that means) wasted no time in dispatching their readings: Times are a-troubling for those occupying the seat of power. Times are bad. Very bad.
Many people following the unravelling of one of the toughest political games in modern Thai history were inclined to join in the countdown on the life of the government, too. After the one-two punch plus upper-cut salvo in the form of successive rulings from the judiciary against the executive branch, what would the cabinet, whose footing had never been sure before, have left to stand on given such shaky ground?
Then came Sunday, however, and our dear old PM Samak sprang back from the brink. His bemused demeanour and little smile of confidence were packed with counter-punches. "Behold! The lowly journalists with no conscience, who show off their lack of judgement by opting to be in this shameful, shoddy profession in the first place, who wrote me off and left me for dead," Mr Samak seemed to suggest via his smug mien. "You predicted that this old PM would have no move left other than to dissolve parliament and exit the corridors of power in quiet disgrace. But look what the fearless old man has got! He has not only managed to sit out the political storm that would have swept away a thinner-skinned cabinet, but he has also come up with a barrage of assaults of his own that has sent everyone, including the courts, ducking for cover..." the PM must have mused.
With the announcement of the 47-billion-baht relief programme, it should be clear now that the Samak government has every intention of staying in power, even if it is to be the last to stand. Some analysts say the big handouts mean another election in six months. I would say a house dissolution would indeed be the last option for Mr Samak, as he insisted earlier, to be executed only when all else fails.
What is clear right now is that Mr Samak has reverted to the campaign for constitution change with a vengeance and a hard-sell, no-holds-barred intensity which suggests he won't stop until he gets it - he even answered a question about the practicality of alternating a free bus with one that is not free, saying details are not to be worried about because the root cause of everything lies with the 2007 constitution!
So, it appears the veteran politician is looking at a long game now. He has all intentions of pushing the amendment through before the case of the dissolution of the People Power party can be judged.
Mr Samak has overcome the first hurdle of regaining popularity through the hardship-relieving package that should win the hearts of a few million people. The next move will be to reshuffle his "ugly duckling" cabinet, which, instead of miraculously morphing into a swan, has, instead, turned into a lame duck.
The PM himself admitted that his government is unpopular and thus unable to attract good, capable people to help out. The reshuffle will be a challenge. But then, our dear old Mr Samak has been around. He might have some connections up his sleeve. If he can resist having such disqualified ex-ministers as Chaiya Sasomsab back, or more unqualified ministers in, then his Samak II line-up could open another window of opportunity and enjoy a few more months of honeymoon with the public. After that, it will be full throttle towards reshaping the constitution and probably redecorating the office, this time for a long stay. Who would need to dissolve the House after that?
My heartfelt sympathies go out to those who probably are still counting on the bad augury from trees and animals. This is a tough head of government you are dealing with. Divine intervention, if that is what it transpires to be, may have to seek more potent forebodings next time. I personally find it hard to imagine a more naked or robust gesture the monitor lizards could have adopted to convey a meaner, naughtier or nastier signal, though.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.
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