COMMENTARY
ATIYA ACHAKULWISUT
Foreign investors have dumped more than 30,000 million baht worth of shares in the stock market over the past few days. Sad I may be, but surprised I am definitely not.
If I were a foreign investor, I wouldn't put my egg in the Thai basket, either. Not because our politics is a big mess. Let's face it, the political affairs of this country have never been neat or methodical.
I would avoid the Big Mango right now, however, because of the unpredictability factor. Madness is alright, even good for business because it eliminates competition. But - and it is a crucial but - there must be some pattern to the chaos. Some fundamental thread no matter how unsound or devious that helps people keep track of the shambles and limit the endless possibilities of how the whole thing might culminate into a worth-a-gamble number.
Look at the current situation. It is a prescription for anarchy.
The worst part of the political wrangling is that it is a proxy war. Most of the actors have their hands tied, if not by law (the barring from politics of the former TRT execs) then by dogma or public sentiment (the army should not overtly stage another coup), or simply by a practical question: who would join a protest if it's held to serve a personal purpose?
So these main actors are advancing their causes through nominees.
How much control do these masters have over their puppets? This question alone gives rise to more possibilities than can be factored in for a viable, act-upon-able conclusion.
Consider Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. Does he have strings attached to his wrists? Is he his own man? Maybe a bit of both. But how can a foreign investor guess in what way would he act independently and for what issues would he toe somebody's line?
Such an element of surprise - guess what beauty is hiding behind the hideous mask? - may spice up a masquerade. But when a country's whole political affair becomes one big masquerade, everybody gets lost.
Of course, those who don't live here, who only stop by for good profit, flee first. It's natural. Who can blame them? The exodus, however, pushes the stock index further south and adds pressure on the already crumbling cabinet of PM Samak.
The situation raises another beguiling question that would befuddle any outsider looking in with an uninvolved psyche: If PM Samak were indeed serving as the administrative chief of this mess, he should have realised after four months that his cabinet is one that he has little control over, that is so ineffectual, incapable and engaged in so much infighting that it is unlikely to achieve anything. He would have also figured out, with all his experience in politics, that he or his interior minister - dubbed the sixth leader of the PAD for his ability to call up thousands to join the street rally every time he opens his mouth - has nothing to offer that would make the PAD go away. He is doomed if he sits idly. Stocks are dipping and investors are running away. He will also be doomed if he uses force to drive the protesters away.
Under this scenario, Mr Samak's logical and best choice should be to call it a day and move on. It would decisively be better for him to go back to serve as a TV chef. At least, he would surely get to run his show.
But, of course, if things were that easy foreign investors would not be fleeing the country.
Despite wearing the PM's mask, Mr Samak may not be functioning as one. It is likely that his only mission from the start was to fix the Constitution. He clearly needs the PM's mask to finish the job, which obviously is turning out to be far more complicated than he might have thought. The noisy People's Alliance for Democracy protest, the opposition's relentless attempt at a censure debate and the pressing economic problems could have humbled even a capable, strong team of ministers, let alone the weak, disconnected and out-of-control team Mr Samak has.
So what are the choices for the masquerading government? If the result of its sitting tight and crushing the protest is very much the same - it loses popularity and probably will have to bow out - Mr Samak might opt for pleasing no one by dissolving Parliament. But then, a lot depends on the army, too, whose intention has been very much hidden behind a mask of tolerance. If it could, it would seek to dissolve both the government and the PAD in one stroke. But how to annihilate both factors without having to resort to a coup?
You see now why foreign investors are packing up and running away from this country.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.
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