COMMENTARY
VEERA PRATEEPCHAIKUL
The questions I was most often asked by friends outside media circles over the last couple of days were: When will the People's Alliance for Democracy end its anti-government protest? How will the protest end? Will there be bloodshed?
Tough questions, but I tried my best to provide answers.
For the first question, my answer is that it all depends on the PAD core leaders, among them Chamlong Srimuang and Sondhi Limthongkul. Since both are regarded as strong-headed and uncompromising, the likelihood is that the protest will go on and on until their ultimate objective is met, which is the resignation of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej or the dissolution of the House. Neither will be easy.
Mr Samak, as tough and stubborn as the PAD leaders, is unlikely to step aside as protesters demand.
The other option, to dissolve the House, is at this time technically impossible since the opposition Democrats' censure motion against the government has already been accepted by House Speaker Chai Chidchob and, under the constitution, the House cannot be dissolved by the prime minister unless the motion is withdrawn.
It was reported that Army commander Anupong Paojinda had urged Mr Samak to resign to end the political impasse. But it is not known whether the prime minister agreed or not.
Then how will the protest end and will it end in bloodshed? Many pessimists, among them Jatuporn Prompan, deputy spokesman of the People Power party, believe bloodshed is inevitable. He said over the weekend that the protesters would try to incite violence, by acts such as breaking into Government House and destroying property, forcing the police to use force to maintain order.
But I don't think PAD leaders are so foolish as to break into Government House, justifying police use of force, although past actions, such as the blockade of Makkawan bridge could be viewed as provocative and intended to incite police retaliation.
Moreover, there have not been any signs from the military that it supports the PAD movement, though the top brass has warned the government to be patient and not use force to disperse protesters.
While the government is showing measured restraint, PAD appears to be constantly probing and testing government patience. Their step-by-step invasion tactic seems to be working fine so far. From the Makkawan bridge where they started the protest, the protesters succeeded on Friday to break through the police cordon and to lay siege to Government House. The siege is symbolic and, for them, amounts to seizure of the government's seat of power.
What remains to be seen is whether the protesters will temporarily lift the siege today to allow Prime Minister Samak to enter his office to work as normal. Hopefully, when speaking in public or on air, he will not make the same mistake he made a week ago when he threatened to unleash force to crack down on protesters only to make a retraction the following day.
The current impasse seems impossible to resolve as PAD and the pro-Thaksin camp, which includes the government, are not in a mood to talk with each other now or in the future. Their mutual animosity and distrust are beyond reconciliation.
The confrontation will exhaust both parties as well as the audience which means you and me, who are tired of the seemingly endless bickering which is preventing the country from moving forward. All sides should take a break and recharge their batteries.
The House dissolution option suggested by Gen Anupong is not bad and could be undertaken if the censure motion is withdrawn in parliament by the Democrats.
And if this is the case, we all will enjoy temporary relief, for some months perhaps.
Then the vicious cycle of political stalemate will start all over again unless, of course, the key players in the conflict are destined for the political wilderness.
Veera Prateepchaikul is Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Post Publishing Co Ltd.
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