COMMENTARY
VEERA PRATEEPCHAIKUL
When former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife, Khunying Potjaman, flew from Beijing to London to escape the law in Thailand about two weeks ago, the country appeared to heave a big sigh of relief. Many of us thought that, at long last, there was a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel now that the single man who was blamed for much of the biggest political divide ever seen in this country was out of the political picture and was not expected to come back in the foreseeable future.
This may be too premature. Although our worst fear of a violent clash between pro- and anti-Thaksin forces has considerably subsided, we are not yet out of the woods as Mr Thaksin has not thrown in the towel yet even if he is not around for months to come.
Of late, there were signs Mr Thaksin had distanced himself from active party politics. The latest cabinet reshuffle was largely handled by the so-called "Gang of Four" namely Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his three close allies, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee, Secretary-General Thirapol Nopparampa and Newin Chidchob, the party's rising star and Mr Thaksin's trusted aide.
Mr Thaksin was said to have played no role in the shakeup. Thus the speculation he might gradually distance himself from active politics to concentrate on defending himself and his family from all the corruption cases against them.
How gullible we are to misjudge and to underestimate a self-righteous and stubborn man like Mr Thaksin.
Despite the legal odds against him, he is not likely to give up easily.
This was evident in the terse handwritten statement sent back home from London the day he landed there to start his new life in exile as a fugitive. He urged his supporters to have patience and to wait for his return some day in the future "when his day has come".
Distance, no matter how far, does not pose an obstacle for Mr Thaksin. It has been proven time again that he has managed to pull the strings from behind for several political events which took place here when he took political refuge overseas following the 2006 coup.
He has demonstrated that he is still very much in control of his fractious People Power party (PPP) and his words, although voiced from far away, are still heeded by his followers in the party.
Last week as the PPP was heading for a factional showdown, Mr Thaksin made phone calls from London to the faction leaders urging them to set aside their differences and to stick together for the sake of the party.
He also urged one faction, the Isan Pattana, to drop a plan to grill Mr Samak over his failure to protect the reputation of Mr Thaksin and Khunying Potjaman for allowing the police to distribute across the nation the arrest warrant for the couple.
Thanks to Mr Thaksin's intervention, the planned query was dropped. The showdown was averted, but the rift is not likely to heal easily with mere words from the party boss. Bitterness and resentment run deep among factions which missed out on cabinet seats.
Although distance may not be a problem, thanks to the marvel of communications technology, the fact that Mr Thaksin is not physically here to look after the party will make it difficult for him to keep the party in one piece since the faction leaders are listening to no one except Mr Thaksin.
The longer Mr Thaksin stays away, the greater the chance that he will one day lose the firm grip that he has held on the party.
For the time being, Mr Thaksin remains fiercely defiant and feels that his day of reckoning will come one day when he stages a triumphant comeback because he believes that he has the loyalty of his party members and the support of substantial grassroots people in the North and Northeast on top of his huge war chest.
What he seems to have forgotten or to have ignored is the Lord Buddha's words of wisdom that nothing lasts forever. The loyalty and support of his admirers will not last, especially from the politicians.
Veera Prateepchaikul is Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Post Publishing Co Ltd.
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