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A noted Chulalongkorn University economist was quoted in THAI RATH last week as saying the massive government economic stimulus package will bring little relief to the poor
KAMOL HENGKIETISAK
The economic problems facing Thailand require major surgery, but the six government stimulus measures unveiled in mid-July provide only temporary relief, said Dr Somphob Manarangsan, a noted Chulalongkorn University economist, as reported by Thai Rath.
Dr Somphob then asked whether the 50 billion baht programme would give a return worth the outlay? Would the poor really be helped, as claimed by Finance Minister Dr Surapong Suebwonglee, parroting his boss, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, who said the measures were conceived as a stop-gap before mega-projects are initiated in the next six months which would lead to higher employment.
Dr Somphob said that the government's measure would not help the poor because over 60% of the funding earmarked for the package, about 30 billion baht, was spent in reducing the oil tariff, which benefits very few poor people. This will help only the middle and high income earners who own cars and trucks.
Not only that, the oil tariff reduction would encourage extravagant use.
Dr Somphob said Thailand spends the equivalent 1% of the world's GDP on oil products, while at the same time the country's GDP is less than 1% of the global GDP. The economist said this signifies a luxurious spending trend, more so than Thailand's economic status warrants.
The best way to help the country to economise on oil use is to let the market mechanism dictate the price, added Dr Somphob.
Dr Somphob also took issue with the measure to provide free water to users who don't exceed 50 units and free electricity to those who don't exceed 80 units. He said the notion that this was aimed at helping the poor was not entirely true.
Those who are likely to benefit are the middle class couples without children. In this case, both husband and wife are usually at work during the day and thus consume little water and electricity.
Meanwhile, the poor cannot afford their own homes and often share small apartments with a number of other people. Where there are more people, electricity and water usage increase proportionally, so these people will not be eligible for the free utilities.
As for the measure to offer free third class railway travel, Dr Somphob argued that few poor people regularly use this means of transportation. Those who would benefit are middle class people who commute every day to work from Bangkok's perimeter.
He also said the free buses wouldn't help poor people so much because there are few BMTA buses available and they are often full of people who get on near the beginning of the routes, leaving no room for the poorer people who live closer to the centre of the city.
Dr Somphob also disputed Mr Samak's rationale that the measures were only temporary, to bridge the gap for the mega-projects to get going in six months. If the government was really pushing hard for the mega-projects, it should be moving faster than the present pace, especially concerning electric trains, as they were thoroughly studied under the Thaksin administration. The Surayud government had also taken action on some lines already.
In fact, everything was in place to continue immediately with the rail transit system. However, six months have passed, and nothing concrete has been done due to infighting.
Now it looks very unlikely that the project can move fast enough to get through the bidding stage and provide jobs for Thai people in six months. The land expropriation has not been done and the environmental impact study has yet to start.
Thai Rath concluded that the government's 50-billion-baht stimulus programme appears to be a populist ploy to earn the people's support for its own political survival.
Preah Vihear talks must go on
The eight-hour Thai-Cambodia General Border Committee (GBC) meeting last Monday could be called both a success and a failure, said a Thai Rath editorial. The success was that both sides agreed not to use force to resolve the territory dispute. The failure was that at meeting's end, there was still no resolution to the outstanding dispute over the 4.6 square kilometres which contains the world-renowned temple and which is claimed by both countries.
It was unfortunate that Thailand again was in conflict with Cambodia over Preah Vihear, after a lapse of 46 years. At that time the Thai people were united on the issue. The present situation is different in that many Thais don't believe this government is dedicated to protecting the country's interests. This belief was bolstered by the fact that Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej assigned career bureaucrat Supreme Commander Gen Boonsang Niempradit to represent Thailand in the talks to resolve the dispute.
Cambodia sent Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Gen Tea Banh to head its team. Thai Rath speculated that Mr Samak, who is also minister of defence, may not be ready to engage in negotiaions himself.
In any case, the editorialist commented that the Thai side was not well-prepared for the talk, and earlier had failed to respond promptly to the diplomatic initiative launched by Cambodia after both coutries stationed fresh troops along the border.
Cambodia painted Thailand as the aggressor to the UN Security Council (UNSC) while simultaneously asking Unesco to invite diplomats from the UNSC to tour the disputed area. There was also a report that Cambodia might take action against Thailand at the World Court again.
The main problem between the two sides is the interpretation of legal points concerning the disputed 4.6 sq km area surrounding the Preah Vihear temple.The Thai side says the 1962 World Court ruling awarded the temple to Cambodia, but the surrounding 4.6 sq km still belongs to Thailand or is a disputed common territory.
This is a sensitive issue involving nationalism, and so it has been hard to get an agreement.
Thai Rath said even though Monday's talk did not resolve anything, the talks must go on because using force is not an option. Both sides should think of the benefits to be gained in pursuing a peaceful agreement rather than engaging in war. Next time they meet, the Thai side must be ready with a team comprised of experts in diplomacy, military affairs and history, concluded the writer.
A fight for survival
The People Power party (PPP) seems to have it in for independent organisations appointed by the Council for National Security (CNS) after the September 2006 coup. Nongnuch Singhadecha, a Matichon writer, noted that after the PPP won the general election in December last year, its first target was the Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC), as there were several cases under the ASC's consideration that could damage former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, believed to be the power behind the PPP. Now that the ASC's term has ended and all the pending legal cases against the Thaksin administration have been transferred to the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC), the PPP is concentrated on discrediting the NCCC, accusing it of being improperly constituted.
The PPP is targetting the NCCC not only in regard to the legal troubles of Mr Thaksin. It is also zeroing in on new cases the NCCC is considering involving the cabinet of Prime Minster Samak Sundaravej, such as approving the joint communique between Thailand and Cambodia that endorsed Cambodia's unitary application to list Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage site.
Mr Samak has attacked the NCCC in his radio and TV address on Sunday for the last two weeks, accusing it of lacking a legal foundation because its swearing-in ceremony was not graced by a proper royal audience. Thus, according to the PM, the NCCC does not have authority to order the cabinet to cease performing, as the cabinet was sworn in in the presence of His Majesty the King.
Ms Nongnuch wondered why it took the PM nearly seven months to decide that the NCCC lacked legitimacy.
The NCCC recently received information which alleged that during Mr Samak's tenure as Bangkok governor, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration received 125 million baht in bribe money for awarding a flood-control tunnel project to a Japanese firm. The bribery case is being considered in a Japanese court.
Ms Nongnuch noted that Mr Samak could not cite an "invisible hand" within the country as trying to discredit him, as he has in the past, because this accusation did not originate in Thailand.
The effort to discredit the NCCC seems to indicate that the PPP-led government is at its wit's end, said the writer.
Ms Nongnuch challenged the PPP to go all the way and declare all organisations appointed by the CNS as being improperly constituted, including the Election Commission that endorsed the PPP's election victory on December 23, 2007. In such a case it could be said that Thailand had been governed by an illegitimate and improperly constituted government for the last 6 months, she concluded.
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