COMMENTARY
ATIYA ACHAKULWISUT
In the spirit of national divisiveness, let me also look towards Britain - "a country which upholds democratic principles above all else", in the words of our run-away former prime minister - and recite a line from the UK's former prime minister Tony Blair.
On opening the debate on the war in Iraq, Blair said: "And in this dilemma, no choice is perfect, no cause ideal. But on this decision hangs the fate of many things."
And in this dilemma, between the People's Alliance for Democracy and the Samak government, and everything the warring factions stand for, no choice seems available at all. So how can Mr Samak expect us - members of the public and mass media - to choose sides? On the one hand, we have a government that can claim legitimacy because it won the democratically-held election but has shown time and again that it is incapable of managing conflicts; nor is it competent in the affairs of state. It had no goodwill from the educated populace from the start, and it didn't care enough to try to generate it.
So, aside from the majority vote, which must be broken down to the power camps within the party, the Samak government has nothing else to stand on. It has not done enough good to win the educated people's trust, to present an alternative future that is convincing enough to get the public on their side.
On the other hand, we have the self-appointed democracy crusader/usurper PAD. While quite a few people would agree with the issues that the PAD has raised during its more than four-month-long protest, probably just as many would feel turned off by its tactics. Amassing a large number of people and laying siege to places they don't like is purest mob rule. It is not democracy. It's anarchy.
So, both the main players clutching the country in their thrall can't be swallowed whole. Each is a less-than-perfect package of some form of autocracy.
The problem is, these two forces have so dominated the political scene - thanks to their access to money, political connections and influence, or simply their being in positions of authority - that no other option, no third choice, can be created. The stakes are so high on both sides that it's no surprise they can't afford to lose.
The political situation has become a zero-sum game. Whoever wins will take all. It's a dangerous corner. And that is why the stalemate has been so protracted.
So what does the PAD want? How will the chaos play out?
The army will still be the deciding factor. I don't think there will be a coup, though. No matter how blindingly power-hungry these players are, they know that a coup would produce too much stink. So both the government and PAD would need to create the conditions so that the army will be with them. The PAD would up the ante with their provocation. If the government reacts with force, it could win public sympathy and the army might be able to work behind the scenes and force the prime minister to resign. That will pave way for the possibility of a national reconciliation government which the PAD seems to envision as its ultimate goal.
What choice does Mr Samak have? If he can convince the army chief to back him up, then he might declare a state of emergency. Then, the government can try to dispel as many people as possible from the protests. If they succeed in doing that, then they can storm in and nab the five leaders of the anti-government movement.
After that, the army can serve as a power broker. Some creative quid-pro-quo can be devised. Which package deal would be sweetest to both? Package A: PM Samak resigns, amnesty for PAD leaders, the Opposition takes the reins, no more protest. Package B: lock up the PAD leaders, ex-premier Thaksin gets a comfortable exile, probably with some of his money back, PM Samak dissolves parliament, another general election. Or Package C: lock up the PAD leaders, PM Samak stays where he is with stronger backup and negotiating power from the military.But what about us? Unfortunately for us, no consensus or closure is likely. Even after all the scenarios are played out, we will still likely get stuck somewhere on one or the other side of the cracks. Choose sides, PM Samak has told the populace. No more fence for Thais to sit on. But how can we choose, when the dilemma is so perfect?Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.
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