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POLITICAL CRISIS
Up to B215bn possible if seizures prolonged
PHUSADEE ARUNMAS NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG
The financial damage from the shutdown of Suvarnabhumi Airport could range between 134 billion and 215 billion baht if the current political standoff is prolonged to December, according to a study by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the university's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said the airport closure had already created huge damage to tourism and exports.
But if the airport reopens within this month, estimated damage to the overall economy would be 73-130 billion baht while the GDP growth for this year could still be between 4.5% and 4.8%.
However, it is possible that the Thai economy will nosedive further until the first quarter of next year in the absence of economic stimulus such as planned investments in state megaprojects.
The centre forecast that economic growth next year may decline to just 2-3% if the country cannot resolve the political turmoil.
''Whenever economic growth is only 2%, unemployment would increase to one million,'' Mr Thanavath said.
Sauwanee Thairungroj, the university's vice-president for research affairs, said the most urgent measure was for Thailand to open the airports as soon as possible because around 80% of foreign visitors fly into the country.
The latest UTCC survey of the tourism situation among operators nationwide on Wednesday showed that 71.2% of the respondents viewed that the situation would cause a reduction in tourist arrivals and 47.89% believed there would be cancellations of accommodation and package tours.
''It is necessary for the country at this moment to have a government and employment. If we don't have a government, we cannot stimulate the economy so small and medium-sized companies would die first. Consequently, unemployment and crime will be rampant,'' she said.
Santi Vilassakdanont, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), estimates economic losses from the closure of Suvarnabhumi Airport will exceed 10 billion baht in the short term.
''The damages are seen in exports as products cannot be shipped overseas. As well, tourism, which is in the high season, is badly hurt,'' he said, adding the disruption of business activities could lead to higher unemployment.
''I think the best way to solve the crisis is for the two camps to step back and compromise for the sake of the economy,'' Mr Santi said.
About 10 electronics manufacturers face difficulty as they cannot ship products overseas, he added.
Kattiya Kraikan, president of the FTI's electronics, electrical and allied industry club, said the sector was losing about two billion baht a day in lost exports.
''Electronics products such as hard-disk drives and integrated circuits (IC) need to be delivered by plane, which normally takes three days, to the global market compared to more than a month via marine transport,'' he said.
''Our clients have been waiting for the deliveries and we might lose their contracts if the protest is prolonged.'
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