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The main condition needed for surviving economic problems is that the government must be able to administer the country
KAMOL HENGKIETISAK
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| Somchai Sujjapongse, right, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, at a press conference on the Thai economy. |
One must accept the truth right now that the country is facing an economic tsunami from the US sub-prime problem that is causing global economic recession. What makes it worse is the internal conflicts raging in the country, said Chetana Chanit, a Matichon writer.
The writer then quoted at length the warning of Amphon Kitti-amphon, secretary general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, about the state of the country's economy.
"The main condition needed for surviving economic problems is that the government must be able to administer the country. The country must be stable to generate confidence in the capital and money markets. For this reason, all sides must cooperate to ride out the economic storm as the global economy is in a dire state and will affect Thailand rapidly within one quarter.
"The heart of Thai economic growth is investment and consumption. The unrest in the country since early 2008 slowed investment while the government could only boost consumption in the short term. Due to the lack of confidence in the government's economic management, if private sector investment does not improve in 2009 the government cannot administer the country, and mega-projects don't move, then the total investment outlay will be in negative territory. The economy will be in a dire state, similar to the year 1997 during the economic meltdown in the country."
Mr Amphon's warning should be heeded, as the economic recession looks to be a reality for next year. All political sides should reflect on this fact. Both the government and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) should avoid violent confrontation and seek talks to find a resolution, otherwise the whole country will lose out.
During a recent seminar on Economic Trend and Investment in 2009 Dr Ajjana Waikhamdee, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, also issued a warning.
"Political stability is important in solving the country's problems. At present, government officials are afraid of being closely scrutinised. This affects policy implementation. The political instability also affects confidence, impacting spending in a negative way.
"The present economic situation is like having a wildfire near the home. If people continue to quarrel among themselves, the country will not be able to withstand the impending doom."
Chetana believed that people should take heed of the two eminent bureaucrats who came out to issue dire warnings. What is most worrying, he said, is that neither side in the conflict seems to listen to anyone - they are only hell-bent on defeating the other side. The PAD wants the government to quit, while the administration of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat insists on staying on.
If both sides really love Thailand, they should look at the big picture, and realise that the global economic recession is coming to cause misery to all Thai people, said Matichon.
Isn't it better to step back and negotiate for a better way out? There is no point in fighting for an ultimate victory when it means the whole country loses out, concluded the editorial.
PAD must stop
The PAD's action of seizing Suvarnabhumi Airport on Nov 25 was condemned on the front page of Post Today in its Wednesday edition.
Post Today noted that peaceful political assembly and non-violent protest is acceptable and guaranteed under the present constitution, but said the seizure of Suvarnabhumi international airport violated the spirit of the law. The PAD has no right to seize the airport, and is trespassing on the people's right to freedom of movement. Passengers were stuck at the airport as the management decided to cancel all inbound and outbound traffic due to the security breach.
What happened affects not only these passengers, but also connecting flights. The Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT) is incurring tremendous losses and the economy of Thailand is suffering even more than before. The tourism sector has been affected by the ongoing unrest in the country since early this year and the closure of the airport may be the last straw.
Moreover, investor confidence in the country will be at an all-time low. Investors are likely to halt pending investments and revise or postpone new ones.
The Post Today called on the PAD to immediately withdraw from Suvarnabhumi airport, otherwise the law enforcement officials in this country must do their duty. The government must also assume responsibility for allowing this shameful event to happen.
Protracted war strategy
The on-going conflict between the People Power party (PPP)-led government and the PAD still has not forced the armed forces to take sides, noted a Post Today writer.
Army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda has repeatedly said that all armed forces top brass had full understanding that staging a coup would not solve the country's political problems. Post Today speculated that Gen Anupong did not want the armed forces to be looked at as the "bad guys" and would step in only if the situation turns violent.
So the PAD's declared "final battle" cannot be ended. Instead it becomes a protracted war, with the government adopting a strategy of retreat, forcing the PAD to fight with shadows.
The government has stood by while the PAD mob has surrounded the Parliament, the Finance Ministry, Metropolitan Police headquarters, Don Mueang airport and Suvarnabhumi airport. The government knows full well that if it again adopts a policy of confrontation, as in the Oct 7 event which resulted in two deaths and several injuries near Parliament, it will be seen in a bad light. By allowing the PAD to engage in lawless activities, the government is shifting the blame to them, although it runs the risk of being seen as weak and ineffectual.
"The PAD's move is like an Indian movie - lots of running around with no effect ... The pressure is not on the government or the red shirts, but the PAD, who want to engage in a final battle, but are failing," commented Jatuphorn Phromphan, deputy PPP spokesman.
The government strategists believe that their strategy of retreat will result in the tide of public opinion turning against the PAD. This seems to be the case with the latest seizure of Suvarnabhumi airport and Don Mueang airport, which are affecting a lot of people and jeopardising national security.
As long as the government stays put and doesn't send their "red shirt" supporters to confront the PAD's yellow shirts, the PAD will be seen as a lawless mob intent on wreaking havoc on the country's economy, said the writer.
Ultimately, the public will no longer tolerate the PAD's antics and will begin to come out to support the government. The PAD may win the short-term battle, but the government will win a protracted war, concluded Post Today.
Thaksin's comeback
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's interview in the magazine Arabian Business out of Abu Dhabi again revealed that he is campaigning to come back to Thailand, either through a mass swelling of public support or the grace of His Majesty the King. The remarks were similar to his phone-in statements during the mobile Truth Today programme at Rajamangala stadium on Nov 1, noted a Thai Rath editorial.
The remarks were also in accord with the call from PPP politician Veera Musikhapong during the National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) meeting at Wat Suan Kaew last weekend that asked Thaksin supporters to buy 2-baht lettergrams and send petitions to His Majesty requesting a royal pardon for Mr Thaksin.
Mr Thaksin said in the newspaper interview that he would come back to Thailand only to serve as a prime minister, not to serve the 2-year jail term handed down by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions, nor to face several lawsuits pending in court.
The interview clearly showed that Thaksin is still confident of his popularity among the Thai people. He said that Thailand was at a low point, with many people in rural areas suffering, and they wanted him to come back and help them. He further stated that he believed if he had a chance to lead the country again he could bring investor confidence back to Thailand. But, he added, if the Thai people don't want him or if His Majesty does not think that he could help the country, he would not come back.
If Mr Thaksin and his supporters believe that the majority of people would still like him to come back to rescue the country, they might be mistaken, said Thai Rath. An Abac poll, after Thaksin's phone-in, found that 44.3% of sampled people support Thaksin, while 57.6% prefer that he washes his hands of politics.
In the interview, Mr Thaksin also blasted United Kingdom for withdrawing the visas granted to him and his wife, and accused the UK of neglecting democratic values. Previously Thaksin had remarked that he was a champion of democracy.
The Thai Rath editorial remarked that Thaksin's idea of democracy was different from that of the UK, which cited the fact that the couple have been convicted of a crime as the reason for the visa withdrawals. This shows that the UK considers the rule of law as paramount, while Mr Thaksin, who claims to be a champion of democracy, considers democracy to be only a matter of coming out first in a general election.
The editorial argued that the rule of law is a pillar of democracy. If there is a dispute concerning assets or a crime is committed, it must go through the judicial process, with a court of law being the final arbitrator. Both sides have to accept, otherwise the country will be in anarchy.
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