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SRISAMORN PHOOSUPHANUSORN
Third-generation (3G) development has been the hottest issue for Thailand's telecoms industry this year as operators rush to play a leading role despite an uncertain environment. Operators the mobile market is highly saturated, so they need to shift from highly competitive, low-margin voice-based service to high-margin data communications to further increase the range of service offerings.
Industry veterans note that that the rush toward 3G _ even though there is no guarantee it will make money _ also represents an attempt by operators to escape from the current concession ''prisons'' run by the two state telecom enterprises, TOT and CAT Telecom.
Telecom analysts said there was no real marketing reason for 3G in Thailand as long as the ratio of data usage to voice was so tiny, unlike in Japan and Korea.
Yet, most believe that 3G will inevitably happen in Thailand, but it will not be because of market demand for high-speed data or higher-density voice calls.
Advanced Info Service (AIS) , the country's largest operator, got a head start by launching 3G commercial mobile broadband services in Chiang Mai, on top of its existing 900 Megahertz frequency with high-speed packet access (HSPA) technology. Further expansion is planned in Bangkok and 20 major cities in the third and fourth quarters of 2008.
Second-ranked DTAC has a 3G plan in pipeline through upgrading its analogue 850 MHz bandwidth to HSDPA. But it awaits approval from its concession holder, CAT Telecom, to import equipment.
Third-ranked True Move is seen to be in the weakest position as it has no available frequencies, so it could face potentially lengthy talks with CAT Telecom.
3G is expected to add an invaluable mobile dimension to services that are already becoming an integral part of modern business life: high-speed internet and intranet access, video-conferencing, and interactive application sharing.
It provides mobile access to internet-based services at a speed of 7.2 megabits per second, about 45 times faster than GPRS and Edge systems.
AIS president Wichian Mektrakarn admitted his company did not expect much revenue from 3G, which would be a complementary offering at first.
DTAC CEO Sigve Brekke, meanwhile, said 3G could have an enormous impact on the country's social and economic development by reaching underserved rural areas that now lacked access to high-speed broadband internet.
With its current low internet penetration of 13% compared to 21.4% in Vietnam and 60% in Malaysia, Mr Brekke said Thailand's internet market had a lot of room to grow, particularly in rural areas.
A study by the consultancy Deloitte for the Telenor Group (DTAC's major shareholder) in six emerging economies _ Serbia, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand _ shows how the mobile communications industry in Thailand has brought about extensive economic and social benefits.
Of the six countries studied, the economic impact was highest in Thailand, contributing 393 billion baht to growth in 2007, equivalent to 4.7% of GDP.
Mr Brekke said there were more than 55 million mobile subscribers in Thailand, representing to a penetration rate of 85%. ''It is anticipated that the rate would be more than double the average penetration rate for the region.''
He said DTAC expected to launch full 3G commercial service in Bangkok by the second quarter of 2009 and to go nationwide by the end of next year, if CAT approves its network upgrade plan.
''We expect to have two million and three million HSPA subscribers, using both handsets and notebooks, by the end of 2010.'' said Mr Brekke.
The challenge operators faced, he said, was not how to implement the technology or develop more new services, but how to get everyone to recognise the importance of the mobile sector, of fair competition and transparency, and an efficient regulatory process.
He said the government already had a good policy of encouraging broadband, but this needed to be more than a PR exercise, with the political will to make decisions and carry this policy forward.
For Thailand to be more competitive and for the Thai people to enjoy superior communications services, Mr Brekke said regulatory policy needed to be transparent and a level playing field among operators should be established.
However, telecom specialist Anuparb Thiralarp suggested that private operators should ask themselves on what licences they would base 3G, as the regulator under the new law does not yet exist.
He also said that providing services on different frequencies was not a solution to 3G investment as the industry had already learned how overlapping investments in 2G services had caused unnecessarily huge investment costs for all parties concerned.
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