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MATICHON said that at this time the majority of the general public in Bangkok does not agree with the PAD's tactics, in contrast to 2006, when middle class Bangkokians greeted the PAD leaders as heroes
KAMOL HENGKIETISAK
The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) offensive to topple the "nominee government," began early in the morning of Tuesday August 26, 2008. This was, coincidentally, the 88th birthday of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, statesman and chairman of the Privy Council, noted a Matichon writer.
The PAD employed the tactic of scattering their targets as in previous protests, but this time did not publicly announce them beforehand for fear of opposition from government security forces.
However, the targets were predictable, ie, the Government House, the Transport Ministry, the Finance Ministry and the Public Relations Department's radio stations and TV station (NBT).
The seizure of the Government House and the two ministries was deemed to be symbolic as they are identified with the function of the government, while the storming and occupation of the radio and TV stations was reminiscent of past coups in which the Army has taken over the airwaves to serve as a mouthpiece for the coup leaders to broadcast messages to the general public.
The mob seizure of NBT was led by PAD "security guards" and technicians for ASTV who wanted to connect the ASTV broadcast signal to the NBT's nationwide broadcast network. That attempt failed.
The Matichon writer noted that the PAD's previous commitment that it would use peaceful means only to topple the government could no longer be believed. The credibility of the PAD was damaged badly with the rough handling of the NBT personnel and the forceful invasion of the Government House and two ministries.
Matichon commented that the PAD's aggressive and anarchic move was aimed to provoke Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej into declaring a state of emergency. Past history shows that such a declaration would open the way for the Army to move in tanks and troops to restore order. Such suspicions seem confirmed by the fact that PAD leader Maj Gen Chamlong Srimuang declared to the PAD's supporters that they should not be alarmed if the Army did bring out the tanks, and also said the soldiers were their "ally".
Matichon said that if Mr Samak falls into the trap and does call in the Army, the PAD would realise its ultimate aim of toppling the government. However, the editorialist did not think it likely that Mr Samak, a political veteran for over 40 years, would make such a mistake. Instead, said the writer, the way for the Samak government to fight the PAD's aggressive moves is to be patient.
At this time the general public in Bangkok for the most part does not agree with the PAD's aggressive tactics, in contrast to 2006, when middle class Bangkokians greeted the PAD leaders as heroes in instigating the movement to expel fomer prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
The PAD's present actions are deemed inappropriate since efforts to prosecute Mr Thaksin are moving along and are expected to bear fruit within this year.
The PAD's long demonstration - more than 90 days now - may have weakened its members and made them want to finish the game early. But the uncivilised use of force not only alienates the general public, it makes it hard for the PAD leaders to find a graceful way out. What's more, concluded Matichon, the misstep cheapens the PAD image to that of an ordinary violent mob.
Raise income levels
CP Group chairman Thanin Chearavanont dismissed worries about inflation in Thailand, saying that developed countries in the West have earning power 10-20 times more than Thailand; therefore, if Western countries have 1% inflation, Thailand can have 20% inflation with no adverse effects, reported a Thai Rath writer.
Mr Thanin noted that for the past 20 years, average Chinese workers have had their salaries raised 10 times with no adverse effect to the economy, then remarked that the Thai government and businesses should raise wages enough to overcome inflation and maintain purchasing power. This is the correct policy as the Thai salary base is still low. Inflation is not to be feared. What should be feared is goods shortage, when there is money but not enough things to buy.
To overcome goods shortages, Mr Thanin advocated allowing the prices to rise so that manufacturers would be enticed to raise their quality. This should be the case with agricultural commodities as well. Raising farm prices while raising salaries would drive economic growth. But successive Thai governments have applied the wrong policy, trying to depress prices with various scheme such as "Blue Flag" and "Made in Thailand" product campaigns. Mr Thanin reiterated that depressing prices would impede the country's economic growth.
By depressing farm product prices, the government makes people poorer, just as if the Opec countries depress oil prices it makes them poorer.
Mr Thanin remarked that Thai farmers have high production costs and face high risks for low profits. For this reason, the Thai government must support higher prices each year for agricultural products.
For example, if the paddy price per tonne is 10,000 baht this year, next year it should rise 5%, to 10,500 baht, and to 11,000 baht for the year after. There must also be ways for farmers to raise productivity. When farmers have more income, they can invest in fertiliser and apply new technology to raise productivity further.
Mr Thanin said that 400 billion baht, if concentrated on a few large conglomerates, would give dividends only to a few rich people and would not much raise aggregate spending in the country. But if the same 400 billion baht falls into the hands of millions of farmers, one third the country's population, the money will be spent and pull the economy forward.
Mr Thanin declared that no wealthy country tries to depress farm prices. Instead, they all try to bring farm prices up. However, he noted that if a free market mechanism is allowed to play according to supply and demand, it is hard to keep farm prices high. For this reason, most rich countries intervene to help farmers. For example, Japanese rice is many times more expensive than Thai rice, yet the Japanese government does not allow free imports of overseas rice to compete against Japanese rice farmers.
Mr Thanin said Japanese salaried workers earn more than average US workers because product prices in Japan are very high. And since most goods are expensive, Japanese are reluctant to spend. For this reason, there is plenty left for saving, which businesses can then borrow at a very low interest for investment.
The Thai Rath writer agreed with Mr Thanin about raising salaries to overcome inflation. In this way, he said, inflation would not adversely affect the people, but would help stimulate the economy.
Fueling the opposition
There is no way to predict how the confrontation between the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the government will end, now that the PAD has declared their determination to force Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej from office, said a Thai Rath writer.
Mr Samak has said that the government would not back down and would do its utmost to quell the unrest.
The Thai Rath writer said there were three possibilities: Mr Samak would resign or dissolve the House; the PAD would run out of stream and peacefully disperse; or the confrontation would lead to violence and ultimately a coup.
The government is surely trying to push events toward a peaceful settlement so that it can continue to govern, but at the same time it does not seem to be sincere in trying to calm down the situation since it creates one problem after another in order to help save one man and his family, which only fuels the opposition.
The latest example is the news that the Revenue Department instructed Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) to transfer to it 12 billion baht of the Shinawatra family's money deposited with the bank, allegedly as a surety on taxes from the sale of Shin Corp to the Singapore government's investment arm, Temasek Holdings.
Seventy-six billion baht, mostly from the sale of Shin Corp and deposited in various commercial banks, had already been ordered frozen by the Assets Scrutiny Committee awaiting disposition of a case being filed with the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Position which alleges that Mr Thaksin is "unusually rich".
Yet Ravitha Pongnuchit, acting as Revenue Department chief while Sanit Rangnoi was overseas, decided to instruct the SCB to transfer the 12 billion baht to the department. The Thai Rath writer wondered why she dared to act in such haste when the Attorney General Office was in the process of filing a case against the Thaksin family. The writer conjectured that she must have gotten orders from higher up to safeguard the money for Mr Thaksin and keep it out of the hands of the state. Mrs Ravitha defended the order, saying that she was trying to bring the money under state control and not deliver it to Mr Thaksin or his children. The Thai Rath writer did not believe her story, saying the Revenue Department' history was mired in collusion with the rich and powerful.
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