Bangkok Governor Election 2004

Taking Bangkok

Analysts believe the winner will be the one with the most `protest votes'
NATTAYA CHETCHOTIROS

Whether Bangkok's fascination with the Thai Rak Thai party will fizzle out is not a matter of if, but when, and Sunday's election can be just about the right time for the city's voters to show they do not care if a cat is black or white so long as it can catch mice.

Several analysts believe the winner in the Bangkok governor poll will be the one with the most "protest votes" indicating falling public sentiment towards the ruling party of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
"More than half the total votes to be given to the winner will be from people who want to teach the government and the prime minister a lesson," said one.

Thai Rak Thai did not field anyone in Sunday's contest for the top job at the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, maintaining it is not interested in competing for local posts.

Critics, however, said the popularity of the party is sagging in Bangkok, especially among the middle-class, and may be ducking the election in fear of the protest vote.

A shadow of its former self in some places, Thai Rak Thai cannot afford to say die.

Media have reported Thai Rak Thai, with its well-known aversion to accepting defeat, also was unwilling to let the Democrats walk away with the title of governor, and went looking for a candidate who could have a big impact at the ballot box and "an easy alliance" with Thai Rak Thai if he or she actually won.

The party has denied these reports. But it was unable to douse speculation that it was secretly throwing support behind Pavena Hongsakula, a former Chart Pattana MP and secretary-general.

The reports cast doubt on, and caused misgivings about Thai Rak Thai, and perhaps hurt the party even more. They came amidst charges that Thai Rak Thai had secretly supported a number of candidates in an effort to split the vote of the mortal enemy, Democrat Apirak Kosayodhin.

Indeed the election for governor is truly a battle between two political giants. If Thai Rak Thai falls in Bangkok, who can say what will come next for the party that governs Thailand? The popularity of past governments always has taken a nosedive first in Bangkok, then in the provinces.

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a Thammasat University political scientist, said Ms Pavena and Mr Apirak had an edge over their competitors thanks to the unswerving loyalty of certain groups of voters.

Public disenchantment with the once-idolised Thai Rak Thai has given Mr Apirak a shot in the arm.
"Voters do not look for someone with the best policy but someone who can best balance the government's power," Mr Somjai said.

The political analyst said findings of several opinion surveys were the same _ three candidates now were out in front of the pack of candidates, and two of them have no connections with the government.
"This is proof that the tide has turned against the government in Bangkok," he said.
But he could not see any of the 19 other contenders would be able to ride into city hall on the wave of public discontent.

Mr Somjai said outspoken politician Chalerm Yubamrung carried his own burden _ records that far from spotless _ while doubts continued over whether Mana Mahasuveerachai, who has the backing of former governor Chamlong Srimuang, was really contesting as an independent and not as another "hired hand" of Thai Rak Thai.
Sukhum Chaloeysup, the Rajabhat University Suan Dusit rector and director of Suan Dusit poll, said Pol Capt Chalerm had started fast but faltered when voters thoroughly looked at his resume.

"People are uncertain if [Chalerm] can really work for them and if they can take pride in having him as Bangkok governor," Mr Sukhum said.

Ms Pavena enjoyed support from housewives, labourers and slum people who liked her for her campaign to save children and women who were abused, and the bravado and gung-ho attitude of self-styled massage parlour king Chuwit Kamolvisit made him popular among teen voters, Mr Sukhum said.

A plea by the respected Prawase Wasi for voters to use reason instead of emotion when casting their ballots could change many minds. Late surveys found support rates of some of the "colourful" candidates have dipped in the latter days of the campaign, he said. Mr Sukhum said he asked voters how they viewed certain candidates. Most said they believed Vuthiphong Priebjrivat should be a senator, while Pol Capt Chalerm and Mr Chuwit could function well as MPs.

This reflected the voting behaviour of Bangkok people, he said. Unlike people in the provinces who would elect a candidate they liked and trusted, Bangkok voters were more likely to take the qualifications, personalities and backgrounds into account in evaluating candidates.

Mr Sukhum said Mr Mana was expecting votes from "a silent majority" _ which the pollster believed does not exist.
Mr Mana estimated 15% of Bangkok voters are in that silent majority and their support, plus that of the undecided, would boost his chances.

Mr Sukhum disagreed. The undecided would likely not go to vote or, if they voted, would select "no one" on the ballot, rather than pick a candidate.

"We don't know who the undecided will vote for," he said. But, "our surveys cannot find if there is really a silent majority in this election."

Dhurakijpundit University rector Varakorn Samakoses said Mr Apirak had the upper hand over Ms Pavena because the Democrat party has a loyal political base in Bangkok, and because he did not "look like a politician".
Mr Apirak's background as a business executive helps to accentuate his promise to "leave the managerial jobs to the managers", Mr Varakorn said.

Former Bangkok governor Bhichit Rattakul, seeking re-election after a term out of ofice, was an able administrator but voters might think he has already been there so they'd better give someone else a chance, Mr Varakorn said.
He also said Mr Vuthiphong, an activist, was a good choice who was likely get left behind because voters would rather save their votes for the favourites.

Chaiwat Thirapantu, director of Bangkok Forum, said city voters tied the election of their governor to national-level politics, to hand the government the ignominy of defeat. "They [voters] are determined to prevent, by any means possible, the candidate backed by the government from winning the election," Mr Chaiwat said, adding he was not looking for "the best and the brightest" but for a Bangkok governor who would listen to the voice of city residents and let them take part in running the city.

Anuj Arbhabhirama, a Thailand Research Fund analyst, said it did not surprise him that Mr Apirak and Ms Pavena were clear favourites and that Mr Chuwit and Pol Capt Chalerm, portraying themselves as "mavericks", also had considerable backing.

Other contestants, such as Mr Mana and newspaper columnist Nitiphum Naowarat, however, should mount their challenges using their own good qualifications.

Mr Anuj agreed Sunday's election could reflect what voters were thinking about Thai Rak Thai, but reminded that nothing is ever certain in Thai politics. Even if the people gave Mr Apirak the welcome mat, there was no guarantee the Democrat party would topple Thai Rak Thai in the general election early next year.
"Thai Rak Thai still has enough time to `right its wrongs'. And then it might see an outpouring of public support again."