The Kasikorn Research Centre (KRC) predicts the outbreak of the A(H1N1) flu virus will cause a drop in Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.1 to 0.3 per cent this year.
However, the impact of the outbreak would not be as severe as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) in 2003.
The leading think tank expected this year's GDP would see a negative growth of 3.5 to 6.0 per cent.
The tourism industry would be most affected, followed by trade and entertainment businesses.
The KRC believed the economy had passed its lowest point when the GDP fell 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, but there were still many risk factors, such as the rapid spread of the A (H1N1) virus.
The researchers said the swine flu outbreak may affect the behaviours of both consumers and tourists, as more people would try to avoid congested areas.
Many foreign tourists, especially those from Taiwan, may decide not to visit Thailand because of the flu outbreak, while local tourists may also avoid travelling at the moment.
Other affected businesses would be shopping malls, movie theatres, entertainment venues and public transport services.
The KRC said the economy would lose between nine billion and 28 billion baht as a result of the flu outbreak, and 65 per cent of that would be in the tourism sector.
The think tank also suggested that the government ensure it is transparent when revealing the H1N1 flu figures.
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- Writer: BangkokPost.com
