4.7% is rosy outlook for 2012 growth | Bangkok Post: business

ECONOMY

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce forecasts 4.7% economic growth next year, with the recovery starting from mid-year and supported by government investment and populist economic policies.

However, Thai growth may sag to 2-3% next year if the country has domestic political problems coupled with a dour Western outlook rooted in the European debt crisis, said Thanavath Phonvichai, the university's director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting.

The 4.7% forecast assumes GDP at current prices will reach 11.587 trillion baht, driven by the government's plan to spend 500 billion baht for flood rehabilitation. Some 150 billion baht is projected to be injected into the system from the government's paddy mortgage scheme and the increase in daily minimum wage.