Sorry to spoil the party mood but …

Commentary: Umesh Pandey

Published: 4 Mar 2013 at 10.39
Newspaper section: Asia focus

From Bangkok to Beijing, Singapore to New Delhi, all across Asia a major concern is weighing on people’s minds: is a new bubble forming in the economy?

I’m no soothsayer — I’ll leave that to more capable people in countries like Myanmar — but think about what’s been going on lately and make your own judgement.

Call me old school, but having started my career in this field a few months before the tom yum kung crisis hit Thailand with the floating of the baht on July 2, 1997, I see some similarities between what’s going on now and what was happening then.

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boons
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Discussion 1 : 04 Mar 2013 at 16.391
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The mathematics are simple: Does the increase in GDP outweigh the expected increase in exports? Let's be clear: Global consumption is collapsing. Thailand is a 70% export economy. The prospect of "internal demand" is a mirage caused by credit growth and hot-money inflows. Greece and Spain are examples of what happens when everyone comfortably assumes that the economy is "improving" while at the same time exports are not. What is most amusing is the number of economists who say (with a straight face) that Cambodia and Burma will make up for the collapse of exports to Europe and America. This bubble is going to implode mightily.
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Sorry to spoil the party mood but … | Bangkok Post: business