Thailand's central bank on Wednesday is expected to keep its already-low policy rate where it has been for more than a year, letting government spending and tourism support an economy that has a weak outlook.
In a Reuters poll, 24 of 25 economists predicted the one-day repurchase rate will remain at 1.5%, where it has been since April 2015, when the monetary policy committee (MPC) meets on Sept 14.
Moody's Analytics economist Jack Chambers predicted a quarter-point reduction to 1.25%, which would match a record low during the global financial crisis. Recent data suggests the economy "is still struggling", he said.
Most economists in the poll expect no policy change the rest of this year, while some predict a cut or a hike.
Annual headline consumer prices rose a fifth straight month in August but remained benign, giving policymakers room to keep rates low and reducing the need for a rate cut.
At its Aug 3 meeting, the MPC unanimously voted to hold the policy rate, saying the current level still supported growth and monetary policy space should be preserved.
Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told Reuters last month there was no immediate need to cut rates to stimulate growth as liquidity remained ample.
The central bank has forecast GDP growth of 3.1% this year and 3.2% next year. It reviews economic projections on Wednesday. Last year's growth was 2.8%.
"While we expect the BoT's growth and inflation forecasts to be lowered slightly, the changes may not be large enough to tip the MPC towards a decidedly more dovish stance" this week, said HSBC economist Nalin Chutichotitham.
But she sees a rate cut by the end of 2016.
Tim Leelahaphan, an economist of Maybank Kim Eng Securities, expects the Federal Reserve to raise US rates this year, so there could be at least a 25-basis-point Thai rate increase to counter portfolio capital outflows.
This year, the baht's strength has sparked some calls for the central bank to act to weaken it, but the currency touched a one month-low against the dollar this week. The baht has strengthened about 3.2% this year.