Potential US rate rise puts brakes on fund inflows

Potential US rate rise puts brakes on fund inflows

Red-hot month for Thai bonds cools down on Fed hints

Foreign fund inflows in the first half of September exceeded the total amount for all of August, but talk of a Fed rate hike has curbed the influx.
Foreign fund inflows in the first half of September exceeded the total amount for all of August, but talk of a Fed rate hike has curbed the influx.

The influx of offshore funds into Thailand has slowed after the US Federal Reserve signalled another rate rise this year, says a senior Bank of Thailand official.

"Offshore flows into the Thai bond market in the first half of September were more than the whole month of August, which registered a net capital inflow of US$2.2 billion (73.3 billion baht)," said Don Nakornthab, senior director of the macroeconomic and monetary policy department.

But the Fed's suggestion that it would raise its policy rate again this year has partly reduced the inflow, Mr Don said.

"We still see inflows in both the capital and bond markets, but they have been somewhat slower than earlier this month," he said. "Moving forward, the inflow trends in both markets are likely to remain steady."

In related news, the Thai economy continued to expand in August, as reflected by an increase in almost every economic indicator, Mr Don said.

On a balance-of-payments basis, Thai merchandise exports amounted to $21 billion in August, up 15.8% year-on-year. Excluding gold exports, the value was $20 billion, up 12.7%.

Mr Don said Thai exports grew in all categories in August except for automotive, which posted a 13.2% contraction for the month, due to a high base effect from last year.

The central bank expects export growth in the second half of the year to be close to the growth posted in the first half, as global demand for Thai products rises.

"At first we thought exports would slow down in the second half, but from the real number posted in August, we think growth this half will be close to that in the first," Mr Don said.

The Bank of Thailand recently raised its export growth rate forecast for this year to 8%, up from 5% predicted earlier. The bank also raised its GDP growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.8%.

Manufacturing output continued to expand for the second straight month in August for both exports and domestic consumption, as reflected by the 3.7% growth in the manufacturing production index, up from the 3.4% rate recorded in July, Mr Don said.

Private consumption grew moderately in August, due to increased spending on services and semi-durables, as shown by the 1.9% increase in private consumption indicators.

But spending on durable goods has picked up at a slow pace, while spending on non-durables remained sluggish.

The fundamental factors supporting purchasing power were not enough to propel broad-based income increases. As non-farm income increased slightly, farm income contracted for the second straight month in August, Mr Don said.

Nominal farm income contracted 2.1% in August, widening the 1.8% contraction registered in July, mainly due to a drop in prices of agricultural products like fruits and palm oil.

Nevertheless, the prices of four main agricultural products -- rice, rubber, cassava and sugar cane -- experienced a slight recovery in the period.

There were more than 3.1 million international tourist arrivals in August. The 8.7% year-on-year increase was fuelled by the growth in Chinese and Asean visitors.

Headline inflation edged up slightly to 0.32% in August from 0.17% in June, while core inflation marginally fell to 0.46% from 0.48%.

Merchandise imports, which reached $17.6 billion, also logged strong performances in August, with 14.3% ($16.9 billion) year-on-year growth and 12.5% growth excluding gold on a balance-of-payments basis.

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