Recap: The protracted Brexit saga and the US government shutdown continue to put pressure on US and European stock markets. Emerging stock markets could be beneficiaries as global funds readjust their risk strategy and reallocate capital to achieve higher returns.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,565.48 and 1,594.06 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,583.77, down 0.8% from the previous week, in moderate turnover averaging 43.98 billion baht a day.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 9.07 billion baht, while retail investors bought 3 billion and brokerage firms purchased 234.9 million. Local institutional investors were net sellers of 12.3 billion baht worth of shares.
Newsmakers: British Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to put together a new Brexit strategy by Monday with cross-party talks after MPs rejected her previous agreement with the EU. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn refuses to meet with Mrs May unless she rules out the possibility of leaving the EU with no deal. The parliamentary vote on the revised plan is scheduled for Jan 29.
The US is reportedly investigating Huawei for "stealing trade secrets" from American business partners in the latest action against the Chinese technology giant. Meanwhile, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has denied Chinese authorities have ever asked his company to help spy on its clients.
Germany's economy grew by 1.5% last year, its slowest rate since 2013. A weaker global economy and problems in the car industry, caused by new pollution standards, have been cited as contributing to the slowdown.
The engineering giants Siemens and Alstom are reportedly losing confidence that the politically sensitive merger of their rail businesses will be waved through by the European Commission.
Singapore's CapitaLand has agreed to buy two real estate holding firms in a deal worth S$11 billion (259 billion baht) that will create Asia's biggest property group with assets in dozens of countries.
The Irish fast-food chain Supermac's won a European Union battle against McDonald's over the use of the Big Mac and Mc trademarks.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand plans to apply for a digital asset operating licence from the Finance Ministry, aiming to open a new exchange and become an authorised digital asset exchange this year.
The baht's value could appreciate to 31.50 against the US dollar this quarter because prevailing global financial volatility is poised to compel investors to seek refuge in new safe-haven destinations, says Kasikornbank.
The net asset value (NAV) of Thailand's fund industry increased by 0.8% to 5.1 trillion baht last year, with net inflows in equity funds but net outflows in fixed-income funds.
Asian real estate investment trusts (REITs) and property development stocks can in combination optimise returns, yield attractive dividends and hedge against financial volatility, says Eastspring Investments.
The initial economic loss from the fine dust fouling the air in Bangkok and surrounding areas is estimated at 2.6 billion baht or more, says Kasikorn Research Center.
Elections expected in March will be a vital driver of the economy this year, as they are estimated to lead to as much as 80 billion baht in money in circulation and spending on political campaigns, says the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
The World Bank is slightly less optimistic about Thailand's economic outlook, cutting its GDP growth forecast to 3.8% from 3.9% in line with the global economic slowdown, but maintaining a projection at 3.9% for next year.
The Private Hospital Association is calling for the government to bring all public hospitals under the jurisdiction of the Medical Facilities Act of 1988 in response to the government's proposed price controls on medical services.
The use of free trade agreement privileges and the Generalized System of Preferences by Thai exporters topped US$68.8 billion in the first 11 months of last year, up 15.3% year-on-year.
Thailand has been chosen as the first manufacturing hub outside Japan for Nissan's electric vehicles, says the regional executive for Nissan in Asia and Oceania.
Kittiphun Anutarasoti, chief executive of CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT), has requested a voluntary leave of absence until the end of March after a Krungthai Bank investigation into loans made to Energy Earth while he worked at KTB led to serious allegations against him.
CIMB Thai Bank said its consolidated net profit plunged 98.2% in 2018, largely due to higher expenses and lower gains on trading, foreign exchange and investments.
Islamic Bank of Thailand (IBank) has received approval to exit its rehabilitation plan by the State Enterprises Policy Commission thanks to its improving operating performance.
SET-listed developer Supalai Plc is upbeat this year despite a rash of negative factors such as new lending curbs, rising interest rates and an uncertain economy. The company plans to launch more projects than last year, with 34 sites in Bangkok and provinces nationwide worth a combined 40 billion baht.
Land & Houses Plc (LH) plans to launch 16 new low-rise housing projects worth a combined 30 billion baht this year but it expects the condo market will slow down from last year.
Coming up: China will announce fourth-quarter 2018 GDP growth and December industrial production and retail sales on Monday. Germany will announce consumer confidence on Monday and the ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday. The US will announce December existing home sales the same day.
On Wednesday Japan will release December trade figures, and the Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting and release its quarterly outlook report. Due the same day is preliminary euro zone consumer confidence.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank will review policy rates and hold a news briefing following its decision. Britain will announce January consumer confidence on Friday and Germany will release the January Ifo business climate survey.
The US will release a series of economic data on Monday, including November trade balance, December durable goods orders and December retail sales.
Stocks to watch: DBS Vickers Securities Thailand recommends stocks with a positive long-term growth outlook. Its top picks for the first quarter are AOT, BBL, BEM, BDMS, CPALL, DIF and PTT.
Tisco Securities recommends holding AOT shares as tourist arrivals are expected to recover. It is overweight on BTS and KKP for high dividend yields and good growth potential.
Krungsri Securities recommends selective purchases of retail stocks such as CPALL, ROBINS and HMPRO, with defensive stocks identified as BEM, BGRIM, TPIPP and TTW.
Technical view: Trinity Securities sees support at 1,560 and 1,580 points and resistance at 1,600 to 1,620. Kasikorn Securities sees support at 1,575 and resistance at 1,600.