Recap: Speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will adopt US-style money printing lifted stock markets across the world last week. The SET Index, however, moved sideways up in a narrow range of 1,586.23 and 1,600.29 points, and closed at 1,597.76, up 0.2% from the preceding week, in moderate turnover averaging 41.74 billion baht a day for four trading days.
Cyber Monday shoppers keep workers at Amazon.com hopping.
Foreign investors were buyers of 648.86 million baht and institutional investors bought 1.71 billion more than they sold. Retail investors were net sellers of 1.93 billion baht and brokers sold 421.37 million.
Big movers: MAX, the top loser last week, sank 18.4% to 0.71 baht, and top gainer UWC rose 44.8% to 8.40 baht. NPARK led in volume, gaining 20% to 0.06 baht. Leading in turnover were TRUE, up 5.8% to 12.80 baht; PTT, down 2.6% to 373 baht; and DEMCO, down 17.1% to 14.50 baht.
Newsmakers: Manufacturing growth across Asia and Europe eased last month as heavy price cutting failed to revive demand. Markit Economics' final November manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone was 50.1, its lowest reading since June 2013. China's HSBC/Markit PMI touched a six-month trough of 50. In Japan, the Markit/JMMA version of the PMI eased to 52 in November from 52.4 a month before.
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's sovereign debt rating by one notch to A1, citing rising uncertainty over the country's ability to hit its debt-reduction goal and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's faltering efforts to kickstart growth.
Online shoppers in the United States set a set a single-day spending record on Cyber Monday, despite deals being stretched out this holiday season. US online sales on Dec 1 jumped 17% from last year, totalling nearly $2.04 billion,
Indonesia's annual inflation rate rose more than expected in November after fuel prices were raised. The annual headline rate was 6.2%, compared with 4.8% in October.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said the government had not yet decided on whether to raise the value-added tax hike, saying it would rise only when the economy was in better shape. Finance Minister Sommai Phasee earlier said the VAT might be raised by at least one percentage point next year to 8% to fund a 12-15% rise in the 2015 budget by to 2.88 trillion baht. Businesses expressed alarm, saying the increase would have an adverse effect on consumers' still-weak purchasing power.
The Finance Ministry is poised to add more spending to the mid-year budget in an attempt to spur the sputtering economy if the government's revenue collection exceeds its target.
Gen Prayut also said the government had shelved plans to amend the Foreign Business Act (FBA), bringing to an end weeks of rumours and speculation that stricter definitions of "foreign", or simply enforcement of existing ones, were in the pipeline.
Inflation eased for a sixth straight month in November to a five-year low, due mainly to lower retail fuel prices and government measures aimed at alleviating the cost of living. Annual headline inflation, based on 450 items, dropped to a 61-month low of 1.26% year-on-year, from 1.48% in October.
The seven-year subsidy scheme for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has been ended completely. The LPG retail price was increased last Wednesday by 1.03 baht to 24.16 baht per kilogramme, excluding 7% VAT, for all sectors: transport, industry and households. Only low-income groups and street food vendors who register with the Energy Ministry can buy subsidised cooking gas for 18.13 baht a kg.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand has set an ambitious goal to double its market capitalisation to 30 trillion baht and raise average daily trading value to 100 billion by 2020. It is studying ways to shorten the settlement period for trades to two days from three in order to be in line with other major exchanges. The SET will also push the use of the US dollar for settlements on the SET and TFEX and to link the Thai capital market with Greater Mekong Subregion members.
PTT faces new uncertainties after the Office of the Auditor-General (OAG) insisted that the energy conglomerate had not handed over any offshore gas transmission pipelines but has relinquished some onshore ones to the Finance Ministry as required by a court ruling. The pipelines that have yet to be returned to the state are valued at 32.6 billion baht.
Consumer confidence fell in November as farm prices plunged to a 40-year low while disbursement of economic stimulus funds stalled, keeping consumer spending weak. The confidence index fell to 79.4 points from 80.1 in October but was up slightly from 79.2 in September, when it fell for the first time in five months.
Coming up this week: Japan will release revised Q3 GDP figures today and China will release trade data for November.
Stocks to watch: DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) has buy recommendations on big-cap stocks that could be buying targets of tax-saving equity funds including ADVANC, KBANK, KTB, INTUCH and CPALL; stocks expected to benefit from state investment including BBL, CK and SCC; and stocks benefiting from the baht's retreat such as KCE and TUF.
KT Zmico Securities also has buy recommendations on stocks that could be bought by LTFs and RMFs. Top picks are PTT, ADVANC, KBANK, SCB, TMB, UNIQUE, CK and CPALL.
Technical view: DBS Vickers sees resistance at 1,600 and then 1,620, with support at 1,565. KT Zmico puts the near-term resistance at 1,602 and then 1,620, with support at 1,580.