Recap: Global stock markets were jolted by further slide in oil prices early last week, but the US Federal Reserve's assurances on Wednesday that it would be "patient" about raising interest rates revived sentiment. The Thai stock market was also rattled further by an unspecified rumour that sent the SET index plunging 9.2% at one point on Monday — the biggest intraday fall since October 2008 — before bargain-hunting narrowed the loss. The SET said it found no irregularities in the slide, putting it down to panic selling.
Catch of the day: TUF reels in Bumble Bee Seafoods
The SET Index swung wildly in a range between 1,375.99 and 1,5,156.79 points, before closing at 1,514.35 points, almost unchanged from the preceding week. Average daily trading was heavy at 70.37 billion baht.
Foreign investors were net sellers of 19.57 billion baht and brokers pulled 5.67 billion out of the market. Institutional investors were net buyers of 19.57 billion baht and retail investors bought 5.67 billion baht more than they sold.
Big movers: INSURE was the top loser, sliding 21.3% to 37 baht. Top gainer PAF rose 46.2% to 6.20 baht. NPARK led in volume, falling 16.7% to 0.05 baht. Tops in turnover were PTT, unchanged at 330 baht; TRUE, down 0.85% to 11.70 baht; and KBANK, down 1.69% to 232 baht.
Newsmakers: The Federal Reserve sent a strong signal that while it was on track to raise interest rates sometime next year, an increase would not happen until at least April.
US manufacturing output rose the most in nine months in November as production expanded across the board, pointing to underlying strength in the economy. Factory production rose 1.1% after advancing 0.4% in October.
China's factory sector contracted in December for the first time in seven months, the latest in a string of weak economic indicators that will intensify calls for more stimulus measures. The flash HSBC/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in December from 50.0 in November.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) to China rose in November, breaking four months of consecutive declines. China drew US$106.2 billion in FDI in the first 11 months of 2014. The services sector attracted $58.6 billion, up 7.9% year-on-year, in contrast to a 13.3% decline in manufacturing.
Average home prices in 70 major Chinese cities fell by 3.7% year-on-year in November following a 2.6% fall in October, the biggest drop since 2011 and a threat to economic growth.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, following a decisive win in the Dec 14 parliamentary election, has a new mandate to pursue his ambitious agenda that aims to revitalise the economy and strengthen its military.
Preliminary PMI data for December showed growth in Japanese manufacturing picked up slightly and grew at the fastest pace since September. Japan's exports grew for a third straight month in November, but the 4.9% year-on-year rise was much weaker than the 7.0% gain forecast in a Reuters poll, slowing from a 9.6% gain in October.
The Asian Development Bank trimmed its growth forecasts for developing Asia for this year and next, but said sliding prices for oil should help economies push through with growth-oriented reforms. It developing Asia was expected to grow 6.1% this year, against 6.2% forecast in September. Growth in 2015 is forecast at 6.2%, against 6.4% previously. It said Thai GDP would rise 1% this year and 4% next year.
Non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Thai banking industry are likely to surpass 3% next year, reflecting the weak economy and fragile recovery, said Fitch Ratings. NPLs were 2.6% of overall loans as of Sept 30.
Standard & Poor's has affirmed its BBB+ long-term and A-2 short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings for Thailand. It also assigned A- long-term and A-2 short-term local currency ratings, with a stable outlook. It warned of a ratings risk "if political and institutional stability deteriorates beyond what we have observed in the past seven years".
SET-listed Thai Union Frozen Products Plc (TUF), the world's top exporter of canned and frozen tuna and shrimp, has agreed to acquire San Diego-based Bumble Bee Seafoods worth US$1.51 billion.
Siam Cement Group, Thailand's biggest industrial conglomerate, has acquired a Scandinavian high-tech research centre and an Indonesian high-value-added packaging maker in its bid for higher revenue.
CIMB Thai Bank has sharply slashed its 2015 growth forecast for Thailand to 3.3%.
Coming up this week: US existing home sales and the euro-zone consumer confidence index will be released today.
The United States will release final third-quarter GDP figures tomorrow. Economists expect growth to be 4.5% year-on-year, compared with 3.9% in the previous estimate.
K.C. Metal Sheet (KCM) will make its trading debut on the MAI tomorrow, followed by Eastern Polymer Group (EPG) on the SET on Wednesday.
LH Shopping Centers Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (LHSC), whose main asset is the Terminal 21 shopping centre, will begin trading on the SET on Friday.
Thai trade data for November will be released on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities recommends good fundamental stocks that are targets to be bought by long-term equity funds (LTFs) and trigger funds ahead of the year-end. They are ADVANC, BGH, INTUCH, KBANK, LH, SCB and TRUE.
Asia Plus Securities recommends stocks that have growth potential and are potential targets of fund managers for year-end window dressing. They are CK, SCC, KTB, KBANK and ADVANC.
Technical view: Tisco Securities sees support at 1,495 with resistance at 1,520. ASP sees support at 1,500 with resistance at 1,530.