Despite continued uncertainty over the global economic pickup, Standard Chartered Bank remains bullish over the Thai economy and is maintaining its 6% growth forecast for this year.
The figure is likely to be reachable, underpinned by public and private investment coupled with foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from Japan aimed at cementing their production bases here, said Usara Wilaipich, the bank's Bangkok-based senior economist.
Besides the low-base effect stemming from last year's dismal growth, the government will help jump-start public investment and expedite budget disbursement.
"We think the 4% economic growth expectation [projected by government think tanks and financial markets] is definitely achievable and the growth ratio could climb to 6%, assuming that domestic political stability is maintained and fiscal policy as well as public investment continue to be implemented," she said.
"The investment segment is expected to be the main driver of the economy in the coming period, replacing exports as the factor shoring up economic growth momentum."
Public investment and public consumption are forecast to grow by 11.6% and 5%, respectively.
The economy is expected to expand by 4% in the first quarter followed by a growth rate of 5% in the second quarter before reaching 6% in the second half under the condition of political stability, said Ms Usara.
"The main downside risk is political stability, which is beyond our assessment," she said.
The Bank of Thailand forecasts economic growth in 2015 of 4%, while the National Economic and Social Development Board expects growth of 3.5% to 4%.
Private investment, meanwhile, is expected to increase by 7.6%, supported by Thailand's low interest rate environment and lower operating costs stemming from a decline in global oil prices, said Ms Usara.
A slump in global oil prices could contribute an additional 1% GDP growth since Thailand is among the world's leading net importers of petroleum, she said.
Ms Usara said private investors also aimed to reap benefits from the fast-approaching integration of the Asean market.
Meanwhile, private investment incentives will be adjusted from a physical business model to a model based on digital technology.
FDI from Japanese investors will be the main fund flows coming into Thailand as they consider the country's strategic location as vital to setting up manufacturing bases to export their products to neighbouring countries, she said.
Private consumption is projected to grow by 3.1%, supported by a slump in oil prices and fixed commodity prices, said Ms Usara, adding that private consumption will gain more traction if the economy and investment segment continue to recover.
Exports are expected to register growth of 4-5% coming from a recovery of shipments to the US and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, coupled with normalisation of Thai rice exports, she said.