Recap: Wild swings in Bank of Ayudhya (BAY), among the top five in trading turnover amid rumours of delisting, caused ripples in the Thai market last week. World markets drifted lower on persistent concerns about weaker economic growth.
The SET Index moved between 1,581.01 and 1,610.78 points last week and closed at 1,581.25, down 1.1% from the previous week, on heavy turnover averaging 56.47 billion baht a day.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 9.45 billion baht and brokers bought 1.24 billion more than they sold. Institutional investors were net sellers of 6.95 billion baht and retail investors sold 3.79 billion.
Big movers: Top loser CYBER tumbled 46.8% to 3.06 baht and top gainer TLUXE rose 39.6% to 9.35 baht. NPARK led in volume, unchanged at 0.05 baht. Tops in turnover were TRUE, gaining 6.25% to 13.60 baht; ITD, up 0.6% to 8.90 baht; and KBANK, losing 5.5% to 222 baht.
Newsmakers: BAY on Monday briefly hit a record high of 104 baht before slipping back after it had clarified that its largest shareholder, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU), had not made public any plan to buy the local bank's remaining shares and delist the stock, as had been widely rumoured. The stock fell back to close at 68.25 baht on Friday.
The US Federal Reserve reiterated its pledge to be "patient" about raising interest rates, while lifting its assessment of the economy and the labour market.
US non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.6% in December after a similar decline in November.
US consumer confidence strengthened to a seven-year high in January on growing optimism about jobs and the overall economy, according to the Conference Board. Its index jumped to 102.9 from an upwardly revised 93.1 in December.
Annual inflation in Germany turned negative in January for the first time since 2009. Preliminary data showed consumer prices in Europe's largest economy, adjusted to compare with other European countries, fell 0.5% year-on-year in January after rising 0.1% in December.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which uses the exchange rate as its main monetary policy tool, reduced the slope of its monetary policy band ahead of its scheduled review in April to slow pace of the Singapore dollar's appreciation. The central bank also cut its inflation forecast for the year, predicting prices may fall as much as 0.5%.
Japan's core inflation slowed for a fifth month in December and may be pressured further by collapsing oil, endangering the central bank's 2% price target even as other data point to a steady recovery. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.5% from a year earlier. Stripped of the effect of the sales-tax increase last April, core inflation — the Bank of Japan's key measure — was 0.5%.
Japan's trade deficit swelled to a record $109 billion in 2014 mostly because of huge post-Fukushima energy bills. The shortfall was 11.4% wider than in 2013 and the worst since records began in 1979.
Standard & Poor's cut Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk status, bringing it below investment grade for the first time in a decade, as economic growth prospects, hit by low oil prices and Western sanctions, worsened.
Thailand's exports in December rose by 1.9% year-on-year but full-year figures showed a decline of 0.4% to $228 billion, the second straight year of declines after shipment values fell by 0.3% in 2013.
The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged at 2% last Wednesday, insisting interest rates would be used as a last resort to deal with an expected rise in capital inflows prompted by the larger-than-expected stimulus of the European Central Bank, which will begin in March.
The Bank of Thailand expects GDP growth in the first quarter to be higher than the 4% predicted by Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula. It points to the low-base effect of last year's dismal performance and the easing of burdens on private consumption by declining oil prices. However, it warned that its 1% export growth forecast for this year could be adjusted downward.
The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has trimmed its forecast for 2015 economic growth to 3.9% from 4.1% and exports to 1.4% from 3.5%. It also cut its GDP growth estimate for 2014 to 0.7% from 1.4% earlier.
Siam Cement Group (SCG), the country's top industrial conglomerate, posted a smaller net profit for 2014. But it expects earnings to rise substantially this year, largely due to demand for cement for planned infrastructure projects. Net profit in 2014 fell 8% to 33.6 billion baht.
M-Link Asia Corp has jumped on the clean energy bandwagon with its first takeover deal worth 500 million baht to acquire a power company.
Coming up this week: Thailand will release January inflation figures today. Also due today are manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) updates for the United States, the euro zone and China.
The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite index and the Markit euro zone services PMI will be released on Wednesday.
US unemployment figures for January are due on Friday.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities has buy recommendations on companies that will benefit from government policies and are expected to post strong earnings. Its top picks are SDT, GUNKUL and MAJOR.
KT Zmico Securities recommends construction firms — STEC, CK and ITD — expected to take part in the government's electric train investment plan. It also likes developers QH, PS and SPALI because of the possibility of interest rates being lowered; ADVANC for solid earnings and dividends; and TRUE for an earnings turnaround.
Technical view: Tisco Securities sees resistance at 1,600 points with support at 1,570 and then 1,560. KT Zmico Securities sees resistance at 1,604 with near-term support at 1,580 and then 1,560.