Recap: Asian stock markets, especially China, Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia, marched upward in response to an oil price recovery and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will delay its rate increase in light of weaker US economic data. A buying spree in energy shares also pushed up the Thai stock market in the shortened week after the long Songkran holiday.
The SET Index jumped on the first operating day after the holiday but inched down on Friday. The index moved in a range of 1,555.96 and 1,575.39 points, before closing at 1,566.85, up 1.2% from the previous week, in heavy trade worth 48.47 billion baht a day. Foreign investors were net buyers of 5.47 billion baht, and brokers bought 1.61 billion more than they sold. Institutional investors were net sellers of 586.77 million baht and retail investors pulled 6.49 billion out of the market.
Big movers: Top loser TVI slid 50.4% to 6.70 baht and top gainer HEMRAJ rose 21% to 5.25 baht. NPARK led in volume, unchanged at 0.05 baht. Leading in turnover were PTT, up 8.1% to 361 baht; PTTEP, up 7% to 122 baht; and PTTGC, up 9.4% to 62 baht.
Newsmakers: US industrial output in Match declined 0.6%, its biggest drop in 31 months, reflecting a plunge in oil and gas drilling activity and the impact of lower crude prices and a strong dollar on the economy.
China's GDP in the first quarter grew by 7%, its slowest pace in six years and down from 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, suggesting the world's second-largest economy was losing momentum.
Chinese real estate investment in the first quarter slowed to a six-year low as developers prioritised clearing inventory amid a housing glut, while the pace of decline in property sales eased. Property investment growth eased to 8.5% from a year earlier, dropping from 10.4% in the first two months of 2015.
Foreign direct investment into China picked up in March, though outbound investment slowed sharply. FDI rose 2.2% year-on-year to $12.4 billion, after a gain of 0.9% in February.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its forecast for global growth this year at 3.5%. For 2016, it expects global GDP to expand 3.8%, up from the 3.7% it forecast in January. The IMF cut its outlook for the US, as a 10% appreciation in the dollar has dragged down net exports.
Standard & Poor's cut Greece's credit rating deeper into junk territory, to CCC+ from B-, citing worsening economic conditions due to prolonged negotiations with lenders. It said it believed the Greek government will have exhausted its cash if there is no agreement by May 12, when Greece is due to pay 760 million euro payment to the IMF.
Singapore refrained from easing monetary policy again after a surprise move in January as it said its current stance was appropriate. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which uses the currency rather than interest rates to guide the economy, said it would maintain its policy stance.
Finance Minister Sommai Phasee has urged the Bank of Thailand to reinforce the downward trend in interest rates by cutting its policy rate again in response to weakening economic conditions.
The government's economic planning unit feels more upbeat about prospects, maintaining its growth forecast in a range of 3.5% to 4.5% for this year. The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said first-quarter growth could come in at 3%. Official figures are due in the third week of May. Growing tourism, recovering private consumption, private investment and accelerated government spending would be the drivers, it said.
Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is also upbeat about economic prospects in the second quarter, saying the economy could grow 4% if exports manage even zero growth or move into the black. The Fiscal Policy Office, meanwhile, says that 1% export growth would be enough to lift GDP by 3% this year.
The first three applicants for nanofinance operating licences are expected to win Finance Ministry approval soon, says a senior Bank of Thailand official. The central bank has already forwarded names of three qualified applicants to the finance ministry and is now assessing the qualifications of 15 other applicants.
Beleaguered national carrier Thai Airways International (THAI) is expected to turn the corner by next year by carrying out its business rehabilitation plan. The plan, approved by the State Enterprises Policy Commission includes selling ageing airplanes and non-core assets, scrapping unprofitable routes and offering an early retirement programme.
TMB Bank, an earnings bellwether for the banking industry, delivered a marginal 2.23% growth in its net profit for first quarter, signalling other lenders' quarterly results will not dazzle when they're released this week. The bank reported a net profit of 1.64 billion baht after pursuing a prudent approach by setting aside provisions of 2.39 billion compared with 1.61 billion in the same period last year.
Coming up this week: US existing home sales for March will be announced on Wednesday.
Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) updates will be released on Thursday for the US, the euro zone, Japan and China. Also due the same day are US initial jobless claims and new home sales for March.
Stocks to watch: Thanachart Securities recommends buying laggard big-cap stocks such as AOT, and stocks expected to benefit if the Bank of Thailand cuts its policy rate again on April 29. Those stocks are SCC, CK, SEAFCO and KKP. Phillip Securities recommends selective buys of on stocks expected to show improved first-quarter earnings. They include BDMS, EWR, CENTEL, PTTGC and IRPC.
Technical view: Thanachart Securities sees near-term resistance at 1,572 points and then 1,584 with support at 1,560. Phillip Securities puts resistance at 1,570 and 1,580 points and support at 1,550.