Megaprojects biggest risk seen

Megaprojects biggest risk seen

Fund managers estimate the Stock Exchange of Thailand index will hover between 1,350 and 1,559 points this year, with public investment in infrastructure projects the biggest risk factor.

The big question is whether the government will be able to invest in infrastructure projects as planned, said Monrat Phadungsit, managing director of Land and House Fund Management Co.

He said risks from the expected US interest rate hike were relatively low since the rate would be increased from an ultra-low level as well as gradually since the economic recovery was uneven.

US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen this month said she expected the interest rate would be raised at some point by year-end.

Despite the recent slide in the Thai stock market, Mr Monrat believes equities remain the core assets of local investors but must be accumulated selectively when they fall.

The Thai bourse has dropped to a low level, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.

If the market slips below 1,400 points, the P/E ratio will be at 10, lower than its average for the past 10 years and below that of other regional markets, attracting a return of foreign funds.

The SET index has fallen by nearly 5% in the past two weeks amid a spate of negative factors including the biggest drop in exports in three and a half years last month, disappointing first-quarter earnings among listed companies, lower-than-targeted state budget disbursement, the uneven global economic recovery and the Chinese stock market's rout.

Juckchai Bonyawat, chief distribution officer at Manulife Asset Management, said high-growth stocks remained interesting amid a low-interest-rate environment worldwide.

Construction, telecommunications, health care and tourism are attractive sectors, as they will benefit from the weak baht, he said.

"The drought should be alleviated by the rains soon, while household debt and domestic consumption will improve next year after participants in the first-car buyer scheme pay off their loans," Mr Juckchai said.

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