Recap: US stocks closed out their fourth straight week of gains but European markets were mostly flat, amid concerns ranging from Brexit to the future of Turkey following a failed coup attempt. Japan slid back amid indications that central bank stimulus might not be as aggressive as traders had hoped for.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand broke 1,500 points when it reopened on Wednesday after the long holiday, and moved in a range of 1,499.19 and 1,517.59 before closing on Friday at 1,509.13, an increase of 1.1% from the week before, in heavy turnover averaging 58.4 billion baht a day. Retail investors were net sellers of 7.11 billion baht and brokers bought 2.63 billion. Foreign investors were net buyers of 9.65 billion baht and institutional investors sold 5.16 billion baht.
Big movers: TRUE, which also led in volume, jumped 2.9% to 8.95 baht; AOT rose 2.6% to 393 baht, and PTT gained 4.6% to 342 baht. Top gainer KOOL jumped 24.2% to 3.80 baht, while top loser IEC dipped 33.3% to 0.02 baht.
Newsmakers: The European Central Bank disappointed the market by leaving interest rates on hold and keeping the pace of its monthly asset purchases unchanged at 80 billion euros on Thursday against market expectations for more stimulus measures. However, chairman Mario Draghi said the ECB was ready to act if signs emerged of more serious Brexit-related trouble.
The Japanese government will propose a stimulus package of at least ¥20 trillion (US$190 billion) to help the economy emerge from deflation and fend off possible adverse effects of Brexit, Kyodo reported on Thursday.
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% this year and 3.4% next year. It said it would have revised up the forecast if not for Brexit, as Japan's 2017 economic outlook was now positive while Brazil and Russia both should return to growth.
Listed Thai banks announced combined second-quarter net profits of 52 billion baht, down 1.63% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to higher provisioning expenses, particularly from big banks including BBL, KBANK, KTB and SCB.
TRUE, which holds the exclusive rights to sell Pokemon items in Thailand, is preparing to introduce Pokemon Go, the mobile game that has taken the world by storm, in September. It expects to see a leap in mobile data usage in the final quarter of this year as a result.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has invoked Section 44 of the interim constitution in a bid to speed up talks between the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) and the Blue Line operator Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM) on running two extended routes to ensure mass-transit rail service continuity. The move also aims to resolve the problem of the one-kilometre "missing link" between the Purple and Blue lines.
The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is reviewing its land lease rates to better reflect real values as it seeks public-private ventures to develop land along the Red Line and the high-speed link between Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima. The SRT chairman said the train services would probably lose money, so profit from land development was crucial.
EGCO is negotiating with Indonesian authorities for a 40% rise in electricity tariffs from a 227MW geothermal power plant in which the Thai company holds a 20% stake.
Second-quarter earnings for S&P500 companies are now expected to fall by 3.8% year-on-year, less than the 4.5% decline estimated earlier in the week, according to Thomson Reuters.
Finance Minister Apisak Tantiworavong affirmed that contracts for almost all 20 of the government's infrastructure investments would be signed by this year, with only one or two projects, such as the double-track railway venture between Thailand and Japan, failing to be settled. He forecast spending of 66 billion baht on the projects in 2016 with the rest spent over the next three years.
The government has set a plan to gradually increase domestic spending on research and development (R&D) to 4% of GDP, the same level as in many developed countries, by 2036. R&D spending is now just 0.5% of GDP.
Coming up this week: The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow and Wednesday with an announcement around 2am Thursday Thailand time. The market expects no change in the benchmark rate, but believes one increase could still take place later this year if global conditions improve.
South Korea will release second-quarter GDP data tomorrow. US consumer confidence, new home sales and home prices are also scheduled for release.
Ekachai Hospital operator Ekachai Medical Care (EKH) will begin trading on the SET on Wednesday after selling IPO shares at 3.05 baht each. Also due are updates in the US manufacturing production index and durable goods orders.
The medical equipment supplier Business Alignment Plc (BIZ) will begin trading on the MAI on Thursday, after selling IPO shares at 2.90 baht.
The Bank of Japan will meet on Friday. Policymakers have been talking down expectations for major expansion of its stimulus or a deepening of negative interest rates. Instead, they want to first gauge the effectiveness of new fiscal stimulus measures planned by the Abe government.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities forecasts stocks that will outperform with second-quarter results are ACAP, AMC, BIG, BSBM, CENTEL, CHO, MONO, PRIN, PSTC, S, SAMCO, TMT and WHA. Stocks expected to pay interim dividends at more than 2% are ADVANC, ASP, EGCO, INTUCH , KKP, LH, LPN, MC, PCSGH, QH and TVO.
Philip Securities recommends holding AOT as a tourism recovery play, along with MAJOR and CMR, and upside momentum plays ERW, BCH and SCN.
Technical view: Thanachart Securities sees support at 1,460 points and resistance at 1,520. Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,482 and resistance at 1,535.