Slight hurt seen from China slack

Slight hurt seen from China slack

China's slowing economic growth trajectory will inevitably affect trade and investment with Thailand, but the service sector and other economic initiatives can lend support to future growth impetus, say Chinese academics.

"It would not be 100% correct to say that there is no impact [from China's slower GDP growth], but such an impact is not expected to be substantial," said Prof Zhang Yuyan, the Beijing-based director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (IWEP).

China could import less from Thailand given softer Chinese demand, while trade and investment between the two countries could subside due to slowing economic conditions, he said, noting that China would experience L-shaped growth going forward.

"Moving ahead, economic cooperation [between China and Thailand] might require a new module or trade sector, such as the tourism industry," said Mr Zhang.

Chinese tourists visiting Thailand numbered around 8 million last year, a figure which is not expected to decline this year, he said.

The latest research from Hotels.com shows that Thailand ranked second in 2015 among the most popular countries for Chinese travellers.

Chinese visitors should exceed 10 million for the first time this year, according to a joint survey carried out by the Tourism Council of Thailand, the Tourism Authority of Thailand, and Chulalongkorn University.

Mr Zhang said China's sustained GDP growth trajectory of around 6% would also continue to ease trade and investment between the world's second largest economy and Thailand, which is Southeast Asia's second largest economy.

IWEP forecast China's GDP to grow 5.7-6.6% annually between 2016 and 2020, with a slightly lower growth projection of 5.4-6.3% between 2021 and 2025.

China remained Thailand's largest trading partner for the first six months of this year, with trade valued at US$30.7 billion. That figure, while down 1.1% year-on-year, still accounted for 15.5% of Thailand's total trade, according to data from the Commerce Ministry's Department of Trade Negotiations.

China also ranked as Thailand's largest trading partner in 2015, with annual trade valued at US$64.8 billion.

China and Thailand could use existing frameworks, namely the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement, to maximise their economic collaboration, said Mr Zhang.

An agreement on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership framework, which is a multilateral free trade agreement between the 10 Asean member countries and six other countries -- Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand -- would also help expand trade and investment in Southeast Asia to another level, he said.

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