Dire view for shipments to key markets

Dire view for shipments to key markets

A cargo ship docks at Laem Chabang port in Chon Buri province. Bleak export outlook is causing nearly all Thai trade officials in 65 world offices to cut their goals this year. APICHART JINAKUL
A cargo ship docks at Laem Chabang port in Chon Buri province. Bleak export outlook is causing nearly all Thai trade officials in 65 world offices to cut their goals this year. APICHART JINAKUL

Export prospects in important markets remain bleak through the year's end because of the sluggish global economy, leading nearly all Thai commercial counsellors and trade ministers in 65 world offices to cut their export goals.

Pranita Kurdpikul, director of Thai Trade Center Chicago, said Thai shipments to the US are likely to grow by less than 1% this year instead of 5% as projected earlier, as the US economy remains weak and consumers are wary of spending.

"Despite the presidential election, the US economy and consumer spending are not as active as expected," she said.

Thai Trade Center Chicago has set a 2017 growth target for Thai shipments to the US of 3%, driven by capital goods such as automotive parts, machinery and canned pineapple, as well as fishery products.

"Fishery products in particular are expected to see outstanding growth next year after the US State Department's Trafficking in Persons (TIP) upgrade," Ms Pranita said.

Thailand was upgraded from Tier 3, the lowest ranking, to the Tier 2 watch list in the TIP report released in June. Tier 2 indicates the Thai government made significant efforts to eliminate trafficking during the rating period but that it still does not fully meet the minimum standards to eradicate trafficking.

The 2016 TIP report covers governments' anti-trafficking efforts from April 1, 2015 through March 31, 2016.

Nitiya Suchinda, the commercial counsellor in Tokyo, said Thai exports are likely to see a flat reading this year after earlier forecasts predicted 1% growth.

She said Japan's economy remains stagnant, but hoped Thai exports would grow by 1% next year thanks to myriad economic stimulus measures introduced by the Japanese government.

Ms Nitiya said next year's export strategy will focus on niche markets such as the elderly, metrosexuals, pet lovers and eco-conscious consumers.

Thai investors will be encouraged to invest in Japan's alternative energy and spa sectors, she said.

Pannakarn Jiamsuchon, the commercial counsellor in Guangzhou, said Thai exports to China are expected to remain slightly down, as China's economy remains in poor condition and faces production relocation by foreign manufacturers.

Commerce Ministry statistics show Thailand's shipments to China contracted over the last two years, falling by 7.9% to US$25.08 billion in 2014 and by 5.3% to $23.74 billion in 2015.

Ponpimol Petcharakul, the commercial counsellor in Hanoi, said Thai shipments to Asean members are expected to shrink by 0.8% this year to $54.7 billion. Exports to Asean were earlier projected to grow 7.4% to $59.2 billion.

Mr Ponpimol said as a production base of semi-raw materials, Asean was hit hard as trading partners' purchasing power weakened.

Suvit Maesincee, the deputy commerce minister, said last week full-year exports would contract by less than 2% this year after posting a 2.3% decline to $122.18 billion in the first seven months of the year.

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