The government vows to ramp up shipments of innovative and high-tech products and stimulate more strategic partnerships next year in a bid to boost exports to 3% growth in 2017.
According to a Commerce Ministry source, Thai commercial counsellors and trade ministers from overseas offices who met yesterday have set an export target of 3% growth next year.
They are committed to stimulating export growth in key markets, such as 1% growth for Europe, 3% growth for East Asia including China, 2% increase for Hong Kong, a 3% increase for Taiwan, 1% growth for Japan and 2.9% growth for the US.
They have set export growth of 3.3% for the Middle East, 2% for South Asia, 2.5% for Asean and 5% for Australia.
"The Commerce Ministry's strategy for next year is to seek more strategic partnerships, more direct investment between Thailand and key trading partners and more aggressive export expansion into primary and secondary cities in key countries worldwide," the source said.
"Trade and investment in innovative and high-tech products as well as services will be beefed up next year."
Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said full-year exports are highly likely to contract by about 2% this year thanks to the slower-than-expected global economic recovery as well as relatively low oil and farm prices.
"Despite falling exports for the first seven months, Thailand has successfully maintained its global market share, especially in key markets," he said. "We still managed to control 10% of the US market, 10% in Japan, 10% in the EU, 25% in Asean and 10% in China, which will help diversify export risks."
According to the Commerce Ministry, Thailand's customs-cleared exports fell by 2.3% to US$122 billion.
Sarun Sunansathaporn, an economist at the Bank of Ayudhya's research department, said the ministry's target of 3% export growth is a serious challenge, as the global economy will still be facing a cyclical slowdown next year.
"It is a very challenging target, as Thailand will be facing not only a cyclical slowdown of the global economy but also structural issues in its own export sector," said Mr Sarun.
He said the recent rebound in crude oil prices is unlikely to last, while the prices of overall goods remain low.
Moreover, he said the export sector faces structural issues since many export goods are closely tied to global commodity prices.
"We expect the global economy to slightly recover in the year to come," said Mr Sarun.
The bank estimates exports to see a 2% contraction this year and 2% growth in 2017.
Sutapa Amornvivat, chief economist at SCB's Economic Intelligence Center, said the possibility of hitting the 3% target next year will depend mainly on the value of exports Thailand achieves this year.
Based on this year's performance and given the current poor global economic conditions, the 3% growth target in 2017 would be difficult to meet.
Ms Sutapa said Thailand's major trade partners have yet to see any signs of economic recovery.
For the US, she said the employment and housing sectors have fared quite well, but private consumption remains unpredictable.
The possibility of a Fed rate hike this year could also slow down the US economy next year, she said.