Shipments post shock rebound

Shipments post shock rebound

Cars, tapioca, fruits move needle in August

Thailand's exports unexpectedly rose for the first time in five months in August, boosted by higher shipments of vehicles, tapioca, fruits and processed poultry.

The Commerce Ministry said yesterday exports expanded 6.5% year-on-year in August to US$18.82 billion, the highest level in six months. The surge helped narrow the eight-month contraction to 1.2% year-on-year to $141 billion.

Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee said shipments rose to nearly all markets except the Middle East -- exports to that region fell by 2.3% year-on-year in August.

Exports to mature markets -- the US, the EU and Japan -- rose by 11.1%, while those to dynamic markets such as Asean, China and South Asia climbed 2.3%.

The ministry said exports of agricultural and agribusiness products shrank 4.1% in August to $2.62 billion, held back by lower shipments of rubber (-31.9%), sugar (-21.4%) and rice (-8%).

Workers speak to each other at Laem Chabang port in Chon Buri province. August exports grew by the most in six months, boosted by higher shipments of vehicles, tapioca, fruits and chicken meat. APICHART JINAKUL

Exports of industrial products recovered to grow by 9% to $15.16 billion, driven by shipments of cars and auto parts (up 40.5%), steel products (44.5%), air conditioners and parts (25%), semiconductor devices and diodes (102.6%) and rubber products (11%).

But exports of gold, finished oil products, TV sets and computer gear remained in the red.

"We estimate exports this year will grow 0.3% if performance in the remaining four months averages $18.5 billion per month. Exports would see zero growth if we fetch only $18.3 billion and contract 1% if shipments average US$17.8 billion a month," said Mr Suvit.

October and December normally fare better than other periods in the year, but he said it is highly likely the country's exports grow 0-1% this year.

Mr Suvit cited positive factors for the last four months such as higher oil and farm product prices. But he said the world's economy remains fragile and new financial measures by many countries might affect foreign exchange and oil prices.

A recent meeting of Thai trade ministers and commercial counsellors agreed this year's exports are unlikely to contract as feared, as shipments to key markets such as China, the US, Australia and the Middle East are expected to fare better in the second half.

Officials predicted annual exports to eke out marginal growth of 0.3% in 2016. Thailand's export value in 2015 totalled US$214 billion, a third straight yearly decline. Shipments fell by 0.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014 against rises of 2.9% in 2012, 15.2% in 2011 and 26.8% in 2010.

Imports totalled $203 billion in 2015, down 11%, giving Thailand a trade surplus of $11.7 billion. Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus for the 16th straight month in August of $2.12 billion. For the eight months, imports totalled $125.62 billion, down 8.8% year-on-year, providing a surplus of $15.38 billion for the period.

The ministry reported border trade totalled 94.37 billion baht, down 1.2% from August last year, tallying 763.22 billion baht year-to-date, up 2.7% year-on-year.

Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council, was happy to see a recovery but insisted major risks remain this year with a gloomy global economy and China's fragile economic prospects. The council is keeping its forecast of a 2% export contraction this year.

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