The leftover state budget set for stimulus measures in the final quarter amounts to 99 billion baht, which together with recovering exports, could raise full-year economic growth to 3.3% -- the level predicted by the Finance Ministry.
The government's ongoing stimulus measures will drive GDP growth to 3.5% for the three months to September, said Krisada Chinavicharana, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office.
Of the 99 billion baht left over in the stimulus budget, 16 billion is from the 35-billion-baht budget scheme offering 5 million baht per tambon nationwide for local development; 20 billion is from the 25-billion-baht mid-year budget; 54 billion is from the budget for small project investments in the fourth quarter; and 9 billion is from the leftover budget of the last fiscal year.
Regarding the possibility of the Finance Ministry again offering tax breaks to increase consumption and boost the overall economy, Mr Krisada said it would depend on consumer mood; tax incentives might not be needed if the recovery momentum is considered sufficient to support growth.
Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong recently said the government would introduce new stimulus measures in an effort to ramp up consumer spending after waning private consumption was spotted in the third quarter.
Separately, Mr Krisada said the unexpected export rebound in August had been a boon to the economy at the same time.
Outbound shipments in August grew by 6.5% year-on-year to US$18.8 billion, the highest level in six months. The surge also helped narrow the eight-month contraction to 1.2% year-on-year to $141 billion.
Exports to Australia showed the strongest growth of 24% year-on-year in August. Other export destinations that performed well in the same period are the US with a 14.9% growth, the European Union with an 11.8% increase and China with a 4.4% rise.
State investment and tourism remained the main drivers.
Government investment shot up by 37.2% year-on-year to 30.5 billion baht, while the number of foreign tourist rose by 9.9% to 2.87 million.
In a separate development, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said yesterday its survey indicated that the annual vegetarian festival will be active this year as more Thais join the activities for merit-making and health purposes.
The survey on Sept 19-27 involved 1,206 respondents nationwide.
Spending during the nine-day festival running Oct 1-9 is forecast at 44 billion baht, up 4.2% from a year before.
"Spending on this year's festival is expected to expand the most in three years since 2014 partially thanks to growing number of people shifting to vegetarianism because of health issues," said Thanavath Phonvichai, vice-president for research at the UTCC.