Business leaders more upbeat about recovery

Business leaders more upbeat about recovery

Committee increases forecast to 3.3-3.5%

Container gantry cranes stand ready at Bangkok port. Exports are expected to perform better next year. ATHIT PERAWONGMETHA
Container gantry cranes stand ready at Bangkok port. Exports are expected to perform better next year. ATHIT PERAWONGMETHA

Business leaders are more positive about the country's economic prospects this year and next after exports fared better than expected in August and the government's measures to rev up infrastructure spending.

They also downplayed the impact of the embattled Deutsche Bank on Thai commercial banks, claiming that the troubles engulfing Deutsche Bank would only affect investors and those who have financial transactions with the German bank.

The US Department of Justice recently imposed a US$14 billion fine on Deutsche Bank for mis-selling mortgage-backed securities.

The citation could deal a further blow to the bank, which in January posted its first full-year loss since 2008.

Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the monthly meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) yesterday revised up its forecast for the country's economic growth this year to 3.3-3.5% from the earlier projection of 3-3.5%.

However, it is still maintaining its forecast of a 2% contraction in exports.

For next year, the JSCCIB projected economic growth of 3.5-4%, with exports growing 0-2%.

"Thailand's economy is now on a recovery course as shown by the export expansion for the first time in five months in August," said Mr Isara.

"The government's accelerated investment in infrastructure and higher private investment will also help boost growth this year and next."

Mr Isara said Thailand's economic structure is changing thanks to higher overseas investment by Thai businesses.

"We're closely monitoring the country's economic structure after Thai entrepreneurs relocated their production bases to nearby countries such as China and Cambodia, mainly in the cement, textile, food and beverage sectors with a combined investment of $10 billion," he said. "This may result in a sharp drop in the export value of certain products."

The Commerce Ministry reported last week that exports expanded 6.5% year-on-year in August to $18.8 billion, the highest level in six months.

The surge, which was boosted by higher shipments of vehicles, tapioca, fruits and processed poultry, helped narrow the eight-month contraction to 1.2% year-on-year to $141 billion.

In a related development, business leaders said the fall in Thailand's ranking in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitive Index (GCI) is not a cause for concern, pointing out that the drop in ranking is less than that of some developed countries and Asean members such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Laos.

The WEF recently announced the GCI 2016-17 edition, with Thailand's ranking dipping two places to 34th out of 138 countries.

The index is a reference for global investors.

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