Thailand's customs-cleared exports rose for a second straight month in September due to higher demand from key markets, raising the government's confidence that outbound shipments are likely to escape contraction this year.
The Commerce Ministry yesterday reported exports expanded 3.4% year-on-year in September to US$19.5 billion (683 billion baht), the highest in two years. The surge helped narrow the nine-month contraction to 0.65% year-on-year to $160 billion.
Pimchanok Wonkorporn, deputy director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Bureau, said shipments rose in nearly all markets except the Middle East – exports to that region fell by 18.9% year-on-year.
Exports to mature markets – the US, the EU and Japan – rose by 7% in September, while those to dynamic markets such as Asean, China and South Asia, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan climbed up 3.7%.
The ministry said exports of agricultural and agribusiness products bounced back to grow for the first time in seven months, edging up 1.9% from September last year to $2.7 billion, boosted by higher shipments of vegetables and fruits, rice, and frozen shrimp.
Exports of industrial products expanded for a second straight month, up 4.2% to $15.8 billion, driven notably by semiconductor devices and diodes, cars and car parts and chemicals.
In September, imports were 5.6% higher from the previous year at $16.91 billion, producing a trade surplus of $2.54 billion. Many imports were assembled into completed goods and shipped out.
However, imports for the first nine months remained red, down 7.3% year-on-year to $142.53 billion. Trade surplus for the period amounted to $17.93 billion.
According to Ms Pimchanok, exports for the final quarter are definitely expected to grow, helping shore up the figures for the entire year to be higher than zero growth.
"We're now more upbeat that the shipments are unlikely to face 2% contraction as forecast by many parties," she said. "For the remaining three months, exports will see no growth if we fetch on average $17.6 billion monthly. If we can average $18.2 billion a month, the country's exports are highly likely to achieve 0.3%."
Sompop Manarungsan, president of Panyapiwat Institute of Management, said the rise of September's exports in key markets was largely boosted by year-end festival purchases.
Better shipments to the US were also driven by the US election, which boosted local spending, while the baht weakness in light of the US dollar appreciation was good for Thai exports.
"Until year-end, the baht is expected to become weaker, as the Fed is expected to raise interest rates," he said. "That will be good for Thai shipments, which are likely to stay in a range of 0-1% growth at the end of this year."