The Thai National Shippers' Council now expects total exports this year to be at best flat and possibly down 0.8% on 2015, but still better than the 2% decline it projected in June.
Despite a recent rise in shipments, weak global demand and low commodity prices would likely continue to crimp exports, TNSC president Nopporn Thepsithar said on Tuesday.
The council estimated the value of exports for 2016 would be US$212.6 billion, boosted by the two-month increase in August and September.
Exports in September rose 3.43% year-on-year with a value of $19.46 billion, and in the first nine months of the year were worth $160.468 billion, down 0.65% on the same period in 2015. The Commerce Ministry anticipated an improvement in the final quarter this year.
Mr Nopporn said negative factors that would affect exports were the cut in projected growth of global trade from 2.7% to 2.3%, low global prices for commodities, uncertainly over whether the US Federal Reserve will adjust the interest rate, and the appreciation of Thai baht.
Other risk factors included the terrorism in Europe and the Middle East and the US presidential election, which would impact the economy in early 2017, particularly the prospect of more trade barriers being applied.
On Friday, the Finance Ministry predicted exports would be down 0.5% this year, rebounding from a drop of 1.9% projected in July.