Boosted by rising exports for a second straight month in September, the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) has raised its forecast to between zero growth and a 0.8% contraction this year from its earlier-projected 2% contraction.
It also predicted exports will grow 0-1% next year.
Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the TNSC, said the export prospects for the remaining three months are promising given year-end festival purchases.
Mr Nopporn said if the remaining three months of the year fetch an average of US$17.4 billion a month, exports will see a contraction of 0.8%.
"We have to earn an average of $18 billion monthly to enable exports to achieve zero growth," he said.
The Commerce Ministry reported late last month the country's exports expanded 3.4% year-on-year in September to $19.5 billion (683 billion baht), the highest in two years. The surge helped narrow the nine-month contraction to 0.65% year-on-year to $160 billion.
The shipments rose in nearly all markets except the Middle East -- exports to that region fell by 18.9% year-on-year.
Exports to mature markets -- the US, the EU and Japan -- rose by 7% in September, while those to dynamic markets such as Asean, China and South Asia, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan climbed up 3.7%.
The ministry said exports of agricultural and agribusiness products bounced back to grow for the first time in seven months, edging up 1.9% from September last year to $2.7 billion, boosted by higher shipments of vegetables and fruits, rice, and frozen shrimp.
Exports of industrial products expanded for a second straight month, up 4.2% to $15.8 billion, driven notably by semiconductor devices and diodes, cars and car parts and chemicals.
The Commerce Ministry reported exports for the final quarter are definitely expected to grow.
However, Mr Nopporn said risk factors are still plentiful in weaker global trade activities, relatively low oil and farm commodity prices, the cloudy Fed rate hike outlook, international conflict, proliferating non-tariff barriers, and the impact of the US presidential election.
"The US presidential election gives us a new challenge, as we don't know how the new US leader will determine trade policies or decide on new non-tariff trade measures," he said.
Vallop Vitanakorn, vice-president of TNSC, said all parties need to closely monitor the performance of the last three months, and predicted Thai exports will fetch $18.5 billion in October, $17.1 billion in November and $17.7 billion in December.
The export revision was in line the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB), which revised export growth in 2016 to be in the range of -1% to zero.
That was up from the range of -2% to zero thanks to a recovery in the global economy, said Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the JSCCIB.
He said rising exports were expected in several industries such as electronics and auto parts.
Demand in major export markets was expected to be better in the latter half than the first half of this year, said Mr Isara.
"JSCCIB also increased its export outlook for 2017, as we expect next year to be better than this year," he said.
The committee projects 2017 export growth to be in a range of 0% to 2%.
The JSCCIB expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, strengthening the US dollar.
"That would weaken the baht and help boost Thai exports," said Mr Isara.
However, he said the JSCCIB still wants the Thai government to rev up investment in mega-infrastructure projects to help boost the local economy and increase confidence among both Thai and foreign investors.
Mr Isara said the purchasing power of Thais is expected to rise slowly as falling farm product prices could deter them from spending more at year-end.
The government should therefore monitor farm prices closely in order to prevent purchasing power from falling, he said.