Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton -- Americans must decide on Wednesday morning. But no matter who wins this most sensational presidential election race ever, there will be strong implications on the world, including Thailand.
After she amassed a large lead in the polls following their debates, Mrs Clinton's advantage has narrowed as she struggles to deal with an email scandal that will not go away. Some analysts believe that may not be good news for Thailand.
"I think Hillary Clinton will be preferable for Thailand in the long term based on their trade policies," said Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
Mr Charl expects Mrs Clinton will not reject the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, rather modifying it before signing to avoid damaging her reputation.
He said as a result, an agreement could be reached later than expected, benefiting Thailand as a late participant in the deal.
But Mr Trump's view on free trade agreements has always been negative, especially those concerning China and Mexico, which he claimed have caused Americans to lose a lot of jobs.
"If Trump really cancelled the free trade agreement with China, it would definitely affect Chinese exports to the US, indirectly affecting China's imports of raw materials from Asean, including Thailand," said Mr Charl.
For overall policies, he said both candidates are likely to cause a US budget deficit, but for different reasons. Mr Charl said Mrs Clinton, the Democratic contender, is expected to issue various social programmes, which will increase government spending and add to the fiscal deficit.
Republican Mr Trump has pledged to lower income taxes for corporations and the wealthy, which will also add to the deficit, he said.
"A larger US budget deficit will pressure the Federal Reserve to increase the policy rate to deal with possible inflation earlier than expected," said Mr Charl.
A Fed rate hike would ripple through the financial markets of emerging economies, he said.
Mr Charl said markets do not prefer Trump because his actions are hard to predict, which can cause high fluctuation.
An analysis by Capital Nomura Securities projects Mrs Clinton's policies to focus on accelerating government spending on infrastructure projects, similar to those of President Barack Obama. These policies would support both short and long-term growth, it said.
Mr Trump's policies would focus on accelerating inflation and adjusting international trade policy to be more supportive of domestic industry, especially the energy industry in the US, resulting in short-term growth as this is likely to lead to a higher interest rate and the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy.
A report from Siam Commercial Bank's Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) said typically investor unease over unpredictable election results would push the volatility index to as high as 21% before the election, then falling sharply to 8% post-election.
The study said with excess liquidity globally, volatility will be high as asset value swings wildly in line with capital flows.
Unpredictable policies, especially those of Mr Trump, will pressure private investment in the US, where it has eroded three quarters in a row, said the study.
Bank of America recently released a survey of small US business operators which found they are worried about the impact of policies concerning employment and private investment. They were concerned if the election has an unexpected outcome the Fed may need to delay its plan to raise interest rates further.
For the medium term, a Trump victory would mean drastic change in tax, fiscal and trade policies, the latter of which would likely lead to protectionism.
In the US, the president has more decision-making power in international relations than Congress. A Trump presidency would likely reduce the role of the US in Asia, which could affect trade activity in the region, said SCB EIC.
Political gridlock would remain after the vote because of disagreements between both candidates' policies in the upper and lower houses. Several Republicans even have qualms with Mr Trump's policies, said the think tank.
A delay in policy implementation is not a good sign for the country's fragile economic recovery, said the SCB EIC.
Wiboonlasana Ruamraksa, the commerce permanent secretary, said Mr Trump's policies, particularly concerning tax incentives, personal and corporate income tax cuts to convince US companies to stay at home and create more jobs, import tariff hikes and opposition to the TPP agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement, would lead to protectionism.
There is a high possibility other countries would introduce more barriers to trade in response to Mr Trump's policies should he win, she said.
"We expect the new US government initially to keep its focus on tackling domestic economic problems, not on trade or foreign affairs," said Ms Wiboonlasana. "Thailand needs to reform its policies to enhance competitiveness and ease of doing business as well as explore new trade and investment opportunities."
Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the US presidential election sounds much like the UK's June Brexit referendum in which no one could predict the outcome.
Whoever wins, global trade is likely to be affected over the next couple of years, as each candidate fashions their own policies, he said.
"I think the impact on trade will be lighter if Mr Trump wins because he promotes a policy that is trade-oriented, not political," said Mr Nopporn.
Isara Vongkusolkit, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thailand's trade is likely to be negatively affected if Mr Trump wins the election, given his radical campaign policies. He said Mr Trump has little association with international organisations and bases his decisions on his business experience, which shows he loves risk.
"Based on Mr Trump's risk-loving personality, we're afraid if he wins he may make a drastic decision that affects not only international trade, but also the global economy and security," he said.
