Taking high-value banknotes out of circulation to curb corruption and counterfeiting might seem like a worthy idea, but India's experience has shown that good intentions need to be backed with credible planning.
The chaos resulting from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sudden move on Nov 8 has affected people at every level of the temporarily cashless society. Long queues at ATMs are a fact of daily life, and businesses of all sizes are suffering because many people simply don't have money to spend.
In what is still very much a cash-based economy, the now-worthless 500- and 1,000-rupee banknotes accounted for 86% of all money in circulation. Indians have until Dec 30 to deposit or exchange all their old notes for new, more secure ones, but as of last week the central bank had provided only enough new notes to meet about one-third of the total demand.
Meanwhile, the impact of demonetisation is spreading beyond the country's shores. Indians are well-known for being big-spending globetrotters and for holding lavish overseas destination weddings.
Thailand is the favourite spot for well-heeled Indians to tie the knot, and local hoteliers and providers of related services are growing nervous. They fear some weddings may be cancelled or postponed until families feel more confident about their cash flow.
Three scheduled destination weddings, two in Abu Dhabi and one in Thailand, have been cancelled and shifted back to India as a direct result of the cash crunch, according to Chandan Ratra, the New Delhi-based director of Katalyst Entertainment Pvt Ltd, which arranges musical entertainment for international destination weddings.
"For sure, it's going to affect [destination weddings] this year [as] people are having setbacks," he told Asia Focus. "As of now, people are not in a very good mood and it will take a few months for them to overcome this."
Katalyst arranges entertainment for about 150 destination weddings per year. Spending on a single destination wedding can range anywhere from US$3,000 (105,000 baht) to between $700,000 and $800,000, he said.
"Approximately 60-70% of destination weddings will not happen [in the coming months]," Mr Ratra predicted.
At the root of the Modi campaign is a desire to crack down on "black money" -- undeclared income hidden from the taxman and diverted into assets ranging from gold to real estate, used to bribe officials or even to fund terrorism.
The amount of black money circulating in India in 2013 was estimated at 28 trillion rupees ($409 billion or 14.6 trillion baht at today's exchange rates), or 30% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Credit Suisse. A year earlier, the figure was said to have been only around 10 trillion rupees.
Satish Sehgal, president of the India-Thai Business Association, agreed that cash-strapped Indians would probably refrain from their usual extravagant spending in the next few months. He does not foresee too big an impact on Thailand, though.
"They used to spend anything between 50 million and 100 million baht for a wedding [and] that sum is likely to drop," he said, referring to Indian millionaires and billionaires.
"But the numbers will not drop. I think [Indian] people will still continue to organise weddings in Thailand because Thailand is the number one [spot for] destination weddings for Indians -- not only Indians from India, but Indians from all over the world."
Ram Sachdev, president of the Thai Indian Wedding Association, reports no cancellations so far, noting that weddings normally are planned six months in advance.
"Whatever measures are taken to eradicate black money in India may have an immediate, but very short-term effect [on Indian weddings held in Thailand]," he told Asia Focus. "Basically, it is not about money, [but] people are in a wait-and-see situation."
As well, he points out that fewer than half of Indian weddings staged abroad originate from India itself. The rest are arranged by Indians living in countries such as Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, England, and the United States.
For wedding planners, "exotic Thailand" adds more value than other regional destinations as Indian weddings are a rich mixture of tradition, festivity and ritual all rolled into one single occasion, said Mr Sachdev.
Sublime food, good-quality hotels, amazing beaches and a warm climate year-round are the trademark charms Thailand has to offer.
"Don't forget that Thailand is already cheaper [than other destinations] and a wonderful alternative," he said. "So whether [couples] are using white money, black money or green money, Thailand has the advantages of value, beauty and the exotic feel," he said.
Indian destination weddings held in Thailand last year totalled around 200, while almost 300 have been held so far this year, underlining the country's growing popularity.
At the JW Marriott Phuket Resort and Spa, a popular destination for Indian couples, it is still business as usual, according to Minelli De Kretser, director of meeting, incentive, conference and exhibition (Mice) sales. "We have not had any cancellations of Indian weddings this year," she said.
The hotel hosted six destination weddings last year and has held three this year, with five events booked so far for 2017 between February and November.
"For Indian destination weddings and leisure business, most of our Indian guests are non-residents coming from Singapore, Australia, the UK, Hong Kong and Spain," said Ms De Kretser.
Similarly, Minor Hotel Group reports no wedding cancellations but has had one cancellation of a small leisure group, said Thomas Meier, senior vice-president for operations in Asia.
Like their Chinese counterparts, the millions who make up the growing Indian middle class have made their presence felt across the globe through travel. But questions have arisen about whether they will have the cash to travel in the short term.
Demonetisation has certainly affected consumer spending, purchases of luxury goods, certain industries, as well as overseas money transfers going through "informal" channels, but so far Mr Sehgal sees no impact on daily spending for daily necessities and the tourism industry.
"Tourists going out of India can go to a bank and buy foreign exchange. In most cases Indians normally buy [US] dollars or travellers' cheques," he said. "The Indian government is quite liberal when it comes to allowing Indians to go overseas so I do not think it is going to affect genuine travellers.
"It is only going to affect people who do not use the proper channels for transactions of money."
A total of 986,000 Indians arrived in Thailand in the first 10 months of 2016, up 12% year-on-year, according to the Department of Tourism. Thailand earned 49 billion baht in tourism revenue from India in 2015 and the Tourism and Sports Ministry aims for 8% growth this year from 1.1 million Indian tourist arrivals.
Many outbound Indian tourists pay for their tour packages via bank transfers and therefore limited impact is expected from demonetisation, said Raghuvinder Pal Singh, the New Delhi-based managing director of D Paul's Travel and Tours, a major agency.
"We are able to attract most of the [tourists] who are willing to pay by bank transfers or cheques," he said. "I have predicted that my business [profits] will not go down beyond 10%."
Doctors and lawyers make up the most of the company's clients, with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Europe the company's major tourism markets.
Mr Singh said Indian arrivals in Thailand could even increase as the Thai government has waived the visa application fee and halved the-visa-on-arrival fee for tourists from 19 countries, including India, from Dec 1 to Feb 28.
"At present, we have not seen a negative impact," he said. "We are monitoring the situation closely with our partners regarding onward bookings."
Tourism and Sports Minister Kobkarn Wattanavrangkul also does not expect a big impact as most Indian tourists come in family groups and their spending is at the middle-income level. The majority also opt to use credit cards.
"Our target of 1.1 million [arrivals from India] could be achieved this year as Thailand remains the number one destination in Asia for Indian tourists in terms of weddings and tourism," she told Asia Focus.
However, Mr Ratra of Katalyst in New Delhi believes his countrymen will be very cautious about spending in the near term. "People will start travelling after two to four months, depending on the policy," he said.
Despite the adverse impact, he said he "totally supports" demonetisation for "a better India" since people have been avoiding paying taxes for decades.
Business-to-business impact, meanwhile, will be seen to a certain degree as many overseas Indians are under-invoicing, a practice where a trader states the price of goods on an invoice as being less than what was paid in order to avoid tariffs, said Mr Sehgal.
In such cases, he said, repercussions are inevitable as certain payments are made using black money.
"It is going hurt the import of certain products 'from' India and it is also going to hurt the import of certain products 'into' India because a lot of Indian importers are under-invoicing," he said.
"It is only a matter of time and I think they will get used to the idea that everything will have to be settled through the proper channels."
On the other hand, the primarily cash-based structure of financial transactions could affect consumption growth in India given short-term disruptions of cash supply in the near term and potential wealth destruction, said Credit Suisse economist Deepali Bhargava.
Empirical studies suggest that a 10% decrease in the real stock of wealth reduces consumption demand by 0.3% in India, she said.
With 10.5% of GDP being demonetised, potential wealth destruction could be higher than the 1978 demonetisation when currency worth 0.2% of GDP ceased to be legal tender.
"But a move toward a formal and cashless economy in the medium term should drive cost efficiencies, prevent money laundering and increase tax compliance, resulting in a significant boost to growth. Also, this move reflects the commitment of the government to reform," said Ms Bhargava.