The decline in Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand is expected to continue at least until the first quarter of 2017 because of the recent crackdown on zero-dollar tours, says the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT).
The council expects Chinese tourist arrivals to fall by 20%, or 2.1 million in the first quarter of next year.
TCT president Ittirit Kinglek said Chinese tourists and travel agencies still have concerns about the situation following the serious crackdown on zero-dollar tour operations in Thailand in September.
The zero-dollar clampdown contributed to a 16.2% fall in Chinese tourist arrivals in October. It is projected the number of Chinese tourists in the fourth quarter of this year will be only 1.6 million, decreasing 12.2% year-on-year.
However, the total number of Chinese arrivals in 2016 will still grow 12.3% to 8.9 million people, missing the target of 10.1 million.
TCT forecasts Chinese tourist arrivals will still rise to 9.17 million next year.
"We are still optimistic the impact of the Chinese zero-dollar tour crackdown will improve after the first quarter of next year," Mr Ittirit said. "The number of Chinese tourists will gradually return to normal if the government finds right measures to install confidence in foreign tourists, especially the Chinese."
The Thai government has been pressuring tour agents to offer legal tour packages at affordable prices to attract Chinese tourists.
Total international tourist arrivals this year are expected to reach 32.5 million, up 8.8% from last year but lower than the expectation of 33.9 million. This year's tourism revenue will rise 15.2% to 1.67 trillion baht, missing the target of 2.37 trillion baht.
Next year, TCT forecasts total international tourist arrivals will exceed 34 million, rising 5.8%, while tourism revenue will achieve 1.85 trillion baht. The arrivals in the first quarter will be 8.71 million, dropping 3.6% year-on-year.
According to Tourism and Sports Ministry projects, Thailand plans to generate 2.4 trillion baht in tourism revenue this year.
Chinese tourist arrivals grew by 19.3% during Jan 1-Sept 11, with the number of free independent tourists representing 60% of the total Chinese tourists.
The number of Chinese tourists has increased more than 10 times in the past decade to 7.1 million last year.
TCT revealed the Tourism Confidence Index stood at 97 points in the third quarter and is expected to improve to 102 points in the last quarter due to higher spending during the festive season. In the first quarter of next year, the tourism confidence index will rise to 104 points.
It called on the government to support more technology development to lure international tourists and crackdown on nominee problems in the tourism sector.