BoT: Q4 growth in 2016 despite tourist contraction

BoT: Q4 growth in 2016 despite tourist contraction

Pornpen: Signs of rebound in December
Pornpen: Signs of rebound in December

The country's economy continued to grow in the final quarter of last year, underpinned by public spending and a pickup in exports, says a senior central bank official.

Merchandise exports were flat in 2016, better than the 0.6% contraction forecast by the central bank, as trade partners' economies improved, said Pornpen Sodsrichai, director of macroeconomic and monetary policy at the Bank of Thailand.

"Exports of Thai goods showed no growth in 2016, recovering from a 5.6% contraction in 2015, thanks to a more robust recovery in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter," she said.

During the October-to-December quarter, exports grew 3.4%, compared with 0.4% growth in the third quarter and a 2% contraction in the first half of the year.

Exports of Thai goods were recorded at US$18.1 billion (637 billion baht) in December or 17.6 billion excluding gold, up 5.6% year-on-year.

But the tourism sector slowed in the fourth quarter as the number of foreign visitors contracted, especially those from China after the government's crackdown on illegal tour operators.

But Ms Pornpen said that despite the tourism slowdown in the fourth quarter, the sector rebounded in December.

The number of foreign tourists who visited Thailand increased 1.1% year-on-year in December after two months of contraction in November and October.

In 2016, the number of tourists arrivals to Thailand was recorded at 32.6 million, up 8.9% from 29.9 million in 2015.

Overall private consumption temporarily decelerated but was partly supported by the government's shopping tax break during the holiday season.

Ms Pornpen said that private consumption slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2016 from temporary factors but the government's measures to increase consumption issued late last year helped it to partially pick up.

The effects of the better-than-expected exports on full year GDP growth remain to be seen as the central bank will also have to consider other factors affecting the economy, she said.

The Bank of Thailand predicts the Thai economy will grow 3.2% for both last year and 2017.

The Fiscal Policy Office on Monday cut its economic growth forecast for last year to 3.2% from 3.3% but hiked its projection for this year to 3.6% from 3.4%.

The National Economic and Social Development Board, which also predicted 2016 economic growth at 3.2%, is due to announce Thailand's 2016 economic reading on Feb 20.

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