The government is likely to revise the national power development plan (PDP) for 2015-36 after delays in the development of natural gas and coal-fired power plants.
The National Energy Policy Committee chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday acknowledged the need to update the plan and ensure sufficient power supply.
According to Energy Minister Anantaporn Kanjanarat, the natural gas supply will be hit the hardest if the government fails to develop coal-fired power plants as planned, specifying that the absence of the coal-fired power plants will lead to heavy dependence on natural gas.
Mr Anantaporn said the government needs to make a decision within six months on whether to revise the PDP or not.
The PDP has been implemented for about two years, with the aim to cut the proportion of natural gas being used to 40% from 70%. According to PDP 2015-36, new sources of power will come from renewable energy, clean coal and nuclear power as well as purchasing power directly from neighbouring countries in order to secure Thailand's power supply.
The plan aims to produce an additional 57,500 megawatts by the end of 2036, taking the country's power capacity to 70,400MW. This figure excludes 24,670MW produced by ageing generators that will be cut off at the end of the plan.
At the culmination of the PDP in 2036, the proportion of renewable energy as a resource to produce power is expected to rise to 20% from 8%. Clean coal will provide 25%, up from 7%, while imported power will rise to 20% from 7%. Nuclear power will provide 2% from zero.
In a separate development, the Electricity Generating of Thailand (Egat) said the country's electricity demand is unlikely to hit a new record this year due to the early start of the rainy season.
Power consumption breaking new records is a regularity in Thailand, and a lack of new record was last seen in 2011 when Thailand faced the most devastating floods in a decade, and in 1997 amid financial malaise.
The rainy season began in the first week of May, scaling back power usage from air conditioners, which normally accounts for more than half of electricity expenses each month, said Rerngchai Khongthong, director of system operation division at Egat.
On average, power demand rises by 300MW for every increase of one degree Celsius in temperature.
This year's usage of power peaked at 30,303MW, up 2% year-on-year, at 2pm on May 4 when the average temperature stood at 35.2 degrees Celsius. Egat earlier estimated that peak demand this year would reach a new record of 32,000MW.
He said that more than 2,300MW from renewable power projects, particularly solar farms, biomass and waste-to-energy plants that energy policymakers granted development and operation licences over the past two years are scheduled to feed power into the grid this year.
Renewable power usage in Thailand has gradually increased to almost 14% of total power-generating capacity from 8% a decade ago.
During the summer, Egat always seeks more power sources to avoid electricity blackouts. These include higher water reservoirs in several Laotian hydropower plants and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by PTT Plc.
With the reduced probability that power usage will break records this year, additional LNG imports for reserve and higher water reserves in reservoirs may decline, said Mr Rerngchai.
Egat has ordered PTT to reduce LNG import volumes to a range of 500-600 standard million cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) from 700-1,000 MMSCFD.
Egat governor Kornrasit Pakchotanon said renewable power will play a larger role in generating power this year and will result in Egat revising the national power development plan for 2015-36.
He said power storage technology has also played a significant role in the global power business because renewable power needs to be stored before being fed into the power grid especially because renewable energy supply tends to fluctuate season to season.
Thailand targets that renewable power capacity will be 30% by 2036, while a 30% consumption reduction from energy saving and higher efficiency is also expected by then.
Egat yesterday officially opened its 5.5MW renewable power plant, consisting of a solar farm, napier-grass biogas and an energy learning centre on a total area of 600 rai in Prachuap Khiri Khan's Thapsakae district.