The Arab world's severance of diplomatic ties with Qatar on Monday is unlikely to have any major impact on the Thai economy, particularly on oil and gas business, as experts and industry officials say the incident is seen as a short-term disruption.
In contrast the rift is expected to weigh on global oil prices, keeping them at the relatively low US$50-$55 a barrel, they said.
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- among the world's biggest oil producers -- accused Qatar of supporting Islamist militants and Iran. Egypt, Yemen, Libya's eastern-based government and the Maldives have also followed suit in cutting their diplomatic links.
Oil-rich Qatar called the decision "unjustified" and with "no basis in fact".
The fallout includes the UAE banning the port and docking area of Fujairah from being used by Qatari oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers for refuelling.
Sources at the Energy Ministry and industry officials say the move is seen as short-term shipping disruption since Qatar could use other ports to deliver oil and gas to the clients.
"The cut in ties is seen to be for diplomatic relations only. It has not yet escalated to a trade sanction or a war that could cut Qatar off from the world," said energy analyst Manoon Siriwan.
Thailand is a major energy importing country, buying 1,331 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
However, Qatar is not a major oil provider for Thailand, contributing to 10% of total Thai crude oil imports, with other major sources being the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Asean countries.
Qatar is a major source for LNG imports, with Thailand contracted to buy 2 million tonnes from Qatargas this year to secure rising demand.
Other LNG providers for this year are Shell (375,000 tonnes), BP (317,000 tonnes), Petronas (240,000-360,000 tonnes) and 1.6-1.9 million tonnes from the spot market, according to the Energy Ministry.
Analysts and a source at a major Thai oil and gas company said there could be a glitch in transporting the gas from Fujairah overland to other ports in Oman or Iran, which could result in a longer than expected delivery period.
"However, we don't see any cut or default signs at this stage and we estimate that the situation will be resolved shortly through diplomatic channels," said the source at the Energy Ministry.
In contrast, the Arab world's ban on Qatar has raised concerns that a political rift between Qatar and several Arab states will undermine an Opec-led push to tighten the market, pushing global oil prices downward.
With production capacity of about 600,000 barrels per day, Qatar's crude output ranks as one of the smallest among Opec countries, but tension within the cartel could weaken supply deals aimed at supporting prices.
Brent crude futures were trading at $49.15 per barrel yesterday, down 32 cents, from their last close.
Weak global oil prices could also induce analysts to maintain their forecast of this year's average oil prices unchanged at $50-$55 a barrel, which falls in line with national oil and gas conglomerate PTT Plc's estimations.
Qatar expects to be hit hard by the incident since major food importing channels were cut off, which would also prevent Thai goods, particularly food items, from entering the country.
Qatar ranks Thailand's fourth biggest trade partner in the Middle East with total trade value of around $2 billion (68 billion baht) a year, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
Qatar is an importer of cars and auto parts, steel, canned and processed foods, rice, air conditioners and cement.
Thailand imports crude oil, natural gas, fertiliser and chemical products from Qatar.
Businesses sector say it is too early to gauge the impact from the Arab break-up with on Qatar. However, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industries and Banking is setting up a special committee to monitor the case closely, according to Chen Namchaisiri, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, under the aegis of the JSCCIB.
The tourism and aviation industries will be immediately hit by the issue, since Qatar a major stop in global air transport.