Floods in India, Nepal and Bangladesh left more that 250 people dead earlier this month. Scores of communities in central and southern China were submerged after torrential rains. Meanwhile, northern Chinese cities including Beijing, Hebei and Henan baked in temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. In Thailand, floods ravaged the northeastern provinces and parts of the South, including the tourist island of Lipe in the Andaman Sea.
Such calamities are just a beginning, a new report warns. Increasingly severe and frequent natural disasters threaten to derail the future growth of the region, according to the report titled "A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific".
Under a business-as-usual scenario, an increase in average temperature of 6 degrees Celsius is projected over the Asian land mass by the end of the century. Temperatures in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwestern China could rise by 8C, said report, released in July by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Such a dramatic change in weather patterns would have a profound impact on the agriculture and fishery sectors as well as land and marine biodiversity, urban development, migration and public health.
"Home to two-thirds of the world's poor and regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, countries in Asia and the Pacific are at the highest risk of plummeting into deeper poverty -- and disaster -- if mitigation and adaptation efforts are not quickly and strongly implemented," said Bambang Susantono, the ADB vice-president for knowledge management and sustainable development.
"The Asian countries hold Earth's future in their hands. If they choose to protect themselves against dangerous climate change, they will help to save the entire planet," PIK director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber said during the launch of the report in Manila last month.
Asia's attempt to save the world has been seen in the surging popularity of renewable energy. But switching to renewable energy is not enough. According to ADB, even if the Paris Agreement goal to limit the global temperature rise to below 2C is achieved, natural disasters will still rage on.
The region will continue to experience a greater frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, widespread coral bleaching and erratic precipitation patterns. In the high mountains of Asia, glaciers will recede, increasing water discharge in rivers and flooding communities, while causing water shortages due to the diminished capacity of glaciers for natural water storage.
According to the ADB, developing nations in the region need to invest US$1.7 trillion per year, if the region is to maintain its growth while responding to climate change. The UN Environment Adaptation Gap Report in 2016 put the total cost of adapting to climate change in developing countries (including those outside Asia) at between $280 billion and $500 billion per year by 2050. Thus, Asia requires massive amounts of mitigation and adaptation finance.
Asia is unique in that some countries have significant potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, while others have some of the lowest per capita GHG emissions in the world. This requires different approaches to assistance and support.
"The challenge is twofold. On the one hand, Asian greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced in a way that the global community can limit planetary warming to well below 2C, as agreed in Paris. Yet even adapting to limit the rise to 1.5C is a major task," said Prof Schellnhuber.
"So, on the other hand, Asian countries have to find strategies for ensuring prosperity and security under unavoidable climate change within healthy global development. But note that leading the clean industrial revolution will provide Asia with unprecedented economic opportunities. And exploring the best strategies to absorb the shocks of environmental change will make Asia a crucial actor in 21st-century multilateralism."
READY TO COPE?
To be fair and realistic, no countries dare proclaim they are fully ready to deal with climate change. But Asia and Pacific, home to the world's fastest-growing economies and huge populations, face a unique dilemma. According to the ADB, the region posted 5.8% growth in gross domestic product in 2016, representing 60% of global growth. If countries cannot "de-carbonise" their economies, Asia's share of GHG emissions could rise to 48% by 2030 from 40% in 2016.
A study commissioned by Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung in 2016 and carried out by the market research specialists Ipsos looked at the world's four largest producers of emissions -- China, India, Russia and the US -- to identify challenges and obstacles to reducing emissions.
Russia, a major fossil fuel exporter, is still concerned about the economic impact of emission reduction and phasing out fossil fuels. "Some Russians still question the idea of man-made climate change and hence the need to reduce emissions," said the study.
The study, which was conducted before the US presidential election last year, also finds the US focuses on profitability when it comes to pursuing emission reduction measures. "Economic considerations act as both motivators and obstacles."
China, despite its ambition to be the leader in renewable energy, has a "conflict of interest" between economic growth and emission reduction, and the problem of enforceability at the provincial level.
India has a priority to combat poverty and, like China, is torn between economic growth and emissions reduction. "The consequences of climate change and the risks associated with development are clearly recognisable, yet reducing emissions is not treated as a priority and international assistance is expected," the study said. "Political and administrative inertia and incompetence are major obstacles."
UNSUSTAINABLE INDIA
With a population of 1.3 billion, India is a major player when it comes to climate change investment.
When it comes to green policymaking and financial growth, the Indian government has focused on renewable energy, particularly solar power and wind energy. However, that is not all there is to India's massive economy.
Infrastructure improvement has become a key to progress and lifting tens of millions out of poverty in India. This has included bringing electricity to all corners of the country, building bridges, dams and roads, as well as adding more urban facilities. Much of this development is not very sustainable due to an over-reliance on cheap coal and other resources detrimental to the environment.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has made grandiose plans to cut carbon emissions, but there has been reluctance to switch to greener methods. Given its many vulnerable coastal areas and widespread poverty, India still believes it has no choice but to continue developing infrastructure as quickly and in cheaply as possible.
Dhiraj Raut is the director of two India-based companies that work in construction and real estate development. He sees infrastructure development as essential to India having a "better tomorrow".
"Besides boosting development, we also work to build affordable housing for the common people," he told Asia Focus.
However, Mr Raut acknowledged the downside of large-scale construction, citing excavation of sand and stone, as well as clogged drainage systems that increase the risk from weather events triggered by climate change.
Besides environmental damage, rural communities are also feeling the effects of India's rapid infrastructure growth.
Sunil Parhad is a medical officer in a government hospital in Palghar district of Maharashtra state and works closely with the Adivasi, a group of indigenous communities that rely socially and economically on the nature that surrounds them.
"Our world is changing because of climate change, yet no one is paying attention to what is happening. They are too focused on commercialising everything, making money," he told Asia Focus. His thoughts were echoed by some women living in an Adivasi community in Palghar.
"We rely greatly on the land. We cultivate it for food, make our homes out of the resources we can find. It is our livelihood," said one of the women. Another said that many construction workers were coming from the city to develop the land that her community relies on so heavily.
India's economy may be growing consistently and significantly every year, but at what cost? At this point, protecting the environment isn't just something that needs to be done to combat climate change -- doing so is also essential for the future of communities like the Adivasi.
