Energy policymakers are set to revise the national power development plan (PDP) for 2015-36 after traditional power projects failed to meet deadlines and the cost of renewable energy fell, says Energy Minister Anataporn Karnchanarat.
The Energy Ministry will alter the PDP after continued delays in the development of fossil fuel power plants, Gen Anataporn said. The low production cost of renewable energy will also impact the revision.
The revised PDP, which will be finalised by the end of 2017, will push for the development of energy storage technology and deregulation of the solar rooftop programme.
Gen Anataporn said the existing PDP, in effect for the last two years, predicted that renewable sources would provide up to 13% of the nation's total power supply, rising from 8% in 2007.
Since 2007, the progressive promotion of renewable energy has reined in the cost of solar panel technology to such an extent that solar energy may become cheaper than fossil fuel energy in the next few years.
The ministry will discuss whether to decontrol the solar panel industry during the preparatory work for the new PDP, Gen Anataporn said.
Several Thai companies have already installed solar rooftops at their factories.
The greater adoption of solar technology is supported by shifting patterns of consumption: peak demand for energy during the hot season now occurs at night-time rather than during the day.
"Many factories could generate power independently during daytime hours in the hot season due to these solar rooftop projects," Gen Anataporn said.
Energy storage research and development is tracking the solar panel trend as it can help stabilise wind and solar resources.
"If the development of smartphone technology is any indication, energy storage devices will develop 10 years faster than expected," he said.
Areepong Bhoocha-oom, the energy permanent secretary, said the existing PDP aims to cut the country's reliance on natural gas from 70% to 40%.
Natural gas will be replaced with renewable energy, clean coal and nuclear power, as well as by power from neighbouring countries.
The plan aims to produce an additional 57,500 megawatts by the end of 2036, which would increase the country's capacity to 70,400MW. This figure excludes 24,670MW produced by ageing generators, which will be cut off before the plan ends.
By 2036, the share of energy produced with renewable resources is expected to climb from 8% to 20%. Clean coal will provide 25% of energy, up from 7%, while imported power will represent 20%, up from 7%. Nuclear power, which does not generate any power at present, will provide 2%.
The new plan will revise up the share of renewable energy to 40% by 2036. Regulators are treading gently, as renewables still cost consumers more than fossil fuels.