A shippers' group is maintaining its export growth forecast of 5% next year, much lower than the lofty 8% set by the Commerce Ministry, citing likely harm from the deepening trade row between the US and China and relatively low crop prices.
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said the US-China trade dispute remains a threat to Thailand's export prospects. She said a close watch is needed to keep track of emergent trade measures.
The Commerce Ministry reported on Oct 22 that customs-cleared exports in September fell 5.2% year-on-year, fetching US$20.7 billion (682 billion baht), after growing 6.7% in August, 8.3% in July, 8.2% in June and 11.4% in May.
The September dip was largely because of a large base a year earlier, a gold export decrease and the impact of the US-China trade spat.
Industrial product exports registered a contraction for the first time in 19 months, falling 6.7% year-on-year to $16.5 billion in value, dragged by exports of automobiles and parts (-7.4%), gold (-78.8%), mobile phones and components (-32.6%) and electronic boards (-10.6%).
Agricultural and agro-industrial product exports slid 0.6% to $3.22 billion in value, led by rubber (-24.3%) and sugar (-10.6%), which saw price declines.
In September, imports rose 9.9% year-on-year to $20.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $487.2 million.
For the first nine months of this year, exports managed to expand 8.1% to $189.72 billion, with imports increasing 15.2% to $186.89 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $2.83 billion.
But Mrs Ghanyapad insisted that next year's 5% target is generous given the relatively high base for this year.
In a separate development, Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said 2019 will be a challenging year for the country's export sector, largely due to the escalating trade dispute between the US and China. Both countries are expected to impose import duties for a third round.
Thailand's industrial sector is also likely to feel the pinch from the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the US's recent decision to cut 11 Thai products out of its Generalized System of Preferences.
The USMCA is a pending free-trade agreement among the three largest North American countries. It is also referred to as Nafta 2.0 to distinguish it from its existing predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement.
The USMCA is the result of the 2017-18 renegotiation of Nafta by member states, which agreed to the terms informally on Sept 30 and formally on Oct 1. Final ratification and implementation are pending.
"Our export sector will suffer indirectly from murky sentiment in global trade and economy in 2019, and the export prospects for 2019 as a result are expected to be well below 2018 growth," Mr Kalin said after a meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking.
Mr Kalin said the country's economic sentiment in the third quarter remained bearish as all segments, including exports, tourism, state spending and farm prices, turned in poor performances.
"The government needs to speed up budget disbursement in the fourth quarter to stimulate the rural economy," he said.