The government remains hopeful that outbound shipments for the full year will grow by 8% as targeted despite a drop in November that led to export growth of 7.3% in the first 11 months.
Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office under the Commerce Ministry, said the ministry still sees the possibility of 2018 export growth achieving the 8% target if export value reaches US$22 billion (718 billion baht) in December.
If exports fetch only $21 billion, full-year export growth may reach 7.5%, she said.
"We still believe that Thai export growth in 2018 will be close to the target of 8%, as shipments to major trading partners, particularly the United States and Japan, still posted healthy growth," Ms Pimchanok said. "CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) and India appear to be very important contributors to Thai exports."
The ministry yesterday reported that customs-cleared exports fell by 0.95% year-on-year in November, fetching $21.2 billion. This was the second drop this year after exports in September shrank 5.2% year-on-year.
November exports in baht terms also fell by 2.4% from the same month last year to 688 billion baht.
Agricultural and agro-industrial shipments fell 8.4% to $3.43 billion, dragged by rice (-22.4%), rubber (-25%), sugar (-32%) and fresh fruits and vegetables (-6.3%). Shipments of industrial products edged down 0.4% to $16.77 billion, led by automobiles and parts (-8%), telephones and parts (-31.9%), computers and parts (-6.1%), and semiconductors and diodes (-39.4%).
Exports to the US market maintained positive momentum and registered 11.9% growth last month, with shipments to Japan also performing well at 4.3%.
Shipments to CLMV expanded 17.6% in November, with those to India up 3.6%, Russia up 6.6% and Asean up 4.9%.
A sharp decline in exports was seen for shipments to the Middle East, Australia, China and South Asia, down 17.4%, 11.8%, 8.9% and 7.6% respectively.
Imports in November rose 14.7% to $22.41 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $1.17 billion.
Export value for the first 11 months rose 7.3% year-on-year to $232.72 billion, while imports increased by 14.8% to $231.34 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $1.38 billion.
Ms Pimchanok said November's export contraction also stemmed from a high year-earlier base.
Exports had shot up 13.4% year-on-year in November 2017 to $21.44 billion.
Banjongjitt Angsusingh, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said the November figures were a result of external factors such as the impact of the trade war between the US and China disrupting global supply chains.
"What we need to do is accelerate moving Thai exports to other new markets," Ms Banjongjitt said. "For this, the department is setting up trade representatives to explore potential markets for promising items such as food and beverages, plastics, automotive parts and rubber products.
"The department has also set up a special task force to tap into African markets, particularly for rubber products, automotive parts, agricultural equipment and machines, and promote online sales, particularly in China and India."
Visit Limlurcha, vice-chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the contraction in November was not so bad, given last year's high base and the unavoidable impact from the deepening trade war between the two largest economies.
But he warned that next year's export prospects are more complicated, particularly due to external factors.
Thai exports must find new markets to substitute for Chinese and US purchases, Mr Visit said.